Market Alert - To the Close

A mushy session post-Tuesday surge and pre-Thanksgiving. Very quiet session with the Harlem Globetrotters garnering most attention this afternoon at the NYSE.

Durable goods were soft, but truck tonnage carried is up 10% this quarter as more goods are shipped in anticipation of a stronger Christmas/holiday season. As I said before, we anticipate the strongest holiday season in over a decade.


Fed Minutes: Very dovish and not. Worries about the lack of inflation were voiced by some as a reason against near-term rate hikes. Others worried that high asset values and imbalances they see building could result in a sharp asset price reversal that would damage the economic activity. So do they not hike and just let stocks run? Here is the problem: worrying about the markets. Greenspan worried they were too 'runaway' and then acted until they crashed. The point: you cannot try to manipulate markets because you will screw up. Markets know more than any person or small group of people. Quit making policies that CREATE the very imbalances complained of. Money will flow where it will flow based on economics UNLESS the Fed or others create impediments to money flow and thus CREATE the imbalances. They will never, ever learn. They don't want to; they like the power.


Michigan Sentiment: 98.5 vs 97.9 vs 97.8 prelim vs 100.7 October
All kinds of explanations for the sentiment fell. Worries about stocks, etc. It hit a high, it retraced some. It is an indicator, combined with other areas, that is at an extreme for the cycle. That does not mean it is at an extreme to the point of causing reversals.


We took some gain on HTHT and on AVGO as did not like the action. AAPL, AMZN working well along with others such as NTNX, BWLD. Some not, e.g. MMM, BLKB, RHT
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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