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Friday, April 21, 2017

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +1.86; DJ +18.29; NASDAQ +7.17

Not a lot of new stories but the French election on Sunday where the field is narrowed to two candidates looms over all markets. And, all markets are rather calm. Even with the Paris attack last night that ISIS takes credit for. Le Pen is the Trump-like candidate in that people voting for her are not telling the pollsters they are.


Earnings beats: V; GE; HON; SWK STI

Misses: MAT (TL)


EU PMI: 56.8 vs 56.0 vs 56.2

German PMI: 58.2 vs 58.3 prior

France PMI: 55.1 vs 53.3 prior


Oil: Sluggish as OPEC was not out with any statements about production cuts and the inventory data is already out.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.232% vs 2.234% 10 year

EUR/USD: 1.0705 VS 1.07188

USD/JPY: 109.11 vs 109.357

Oil: 50.68, -0.03

Gold: 1284.00, +0.2


Futures have been up all morning but in a very flat range. They are dipping over the past half hour as the open approaches. Not the most inspiring action for a continued upside move, but in the absence of any real conviction, once again the indices are higher.

Not a very inspiring open, but when moving higher, soft, sluggish opens are a good thing. Don't want to give the sellers a lot to shoot at as gaps upside tend to do.

Expiration and it sure is starting quietly after Thursday's forced short covering as the market moved against those starting to bet downside.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Thursday, April 20, 2017

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +6.78; DJ +39.51; NASDAQ +22.76

Earnings are mostly good and helping a bounce. Saw the same thing Wednesday and that did not work out that well, a lot of it due to IBM but you cannot blame big blue for all the market's blues. Today it is VZ as it missed results and DJ30 will feel that some as well.

Beats: QCOM; AXP; DHI; DGX; KEY; EBAY (but weak guidance); URI

Misses: VZ (TL, BL); TRV (TL, BL)


Philly Fed, April: 22.0 vs 23.7 expected vs 32.8. From a surge not seen since 1984 (post-Reagan economic and tax policies) to dropping the most in a decade.


Fed: Powell says Dodd-Frank is being improperly applied to small and mid-sized banks, particularly the 'too big to fail' portions.

Fed's Kaplan: 3 rate hikes in 2017 "still a good baseline."


Oil: Tried to bounce on OPEC jawboning, rising 0.8% earlier, but that move has since dissipated. Saudi Arabia's endorsement of a production cut extension was less than full throated.


OTHER MARKETS

The other markets are moving in the other direction after rallying. This may give stocks more staying power today versus Wednesday's early rally then drop.

Bonds: 2.237% vs 2.21% 20 year. Bonds continue to fade some after good gains on a breakout.

EUR/USD: 1.0744 vs 1.0717

USD/JPY: 109.014 vs 108.974. Dollar bouncing back as well

Oil: 50.32, -0.12. OPEC tried to talk oil higher with SArabia saying a 'consensus' was building for extending the production cuts. Oil was slammed Wednesday and the early bounce attempt saw a 0.8% gain, but that dissipated.

Gold: 1282.40, -1.00. Pausing after a nice run.


Futures are holding gains made in the very early session. Not rallying to the open, just holding the gains. With stagnant but higher futures, we have to see how sellers react. Wednesday they took shots at the gains and were somewhat successful. They likely try again as they are a bit emboldened.

As noted, other markets are fading their recent moves, indicating all markets are backtracking the recent action. That may give stocks a bit more staying power versus Wednesday.

SP500, NASDAQ still have decent patterns, DJ30 is still holding the Fibonacci retracement. How they bounce, and hold, tells more about their pattern strength. SOX, RUTX, SP400 are still in the 'trying to hang on enough to recover' stage.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Market Alert - The Close

The market indices are now back to looking to NASDAQ to lead them to the new high land. IBM earnings missed and that heavily weighted Dow stock gapped below the 200 day SMA, falling over 5% on the session low. That dropped SP500 and DJ30 back below the 50 day MA's, joining SOX and SP400 below those levels.

Indeed, the growth areas sans IBM performed better, posting solid enough gains off a higher open, they just didn't change their fate significantly. NASDAQ was the best technically after the session, but again, that leaves NASDAQ still having to pull the market's weight.

SP500 -4.02, -0.17%
NASDAQ 13.56, 0.23%
DJ30 -188.79, -0.58%
SP400 0.23%
RUTX 0.38%
SOX 0.55%

VOLUME: NYSE +8%, NASDAQ +9%. Moved close to average on both exchanges. Rallied on the NASDAQ move higher, ostensibly an indication of buying, but I am not jumping to the conclusion that Wednesday was an accumulation session. By the same standard, while SP500 was down on higher volume, IBM accounted for a lot of the spike (19.3M, 6x average trade), and it still held fairly well in its pattern. DJ30 saw volume move to just over average, but it also held at the Fibonacci retracement on the close. as did NYSE, thanks to the massive spike in IBM volume (19.3M, 6x average trade).

A/D: NYSE -1.2:1, NASDAQ +1.5:1. Even with the small and midcaps posting gains, NYSE breadth was negative. Very strange action.

While there was trouble with earnings, as in more top line misses (IBM, BLK, TXT), others both with and without earnings scored nice gains. ISRG bolted higher on its earnings. BRKS in chips gave us an entry while PLAB posted a nice day. FAANG was mixed. FB rallied, NFLX broke lower, the rest held their ground.

Others continued to struggle and look problematic. Industrial equipment struggles and we moved into some CMI puts. CAT gapped upside, rallied, then reversed the entire move as sellers sold it on volume. HON gapped then reversed lower.

Financial stocks remained weaker. C gapped higher and reversed lower; a continued drop and it is a downside entry. MS gapped higher on earnings, but after touching the 50 day EMA faded half the move. GS continued lower. Others are problematic, e.g. BAC, but even if they recover, they need work.

Biotechs were mixed with EXAS scoring upside but CORT dropping toward the 50 day MA. IMMU flopped back to the 50 day MA after a nice break higher Tuesday. XOMA managed to hang onto its Tuesday break higher. Mixed, but this is a volatile group, with big upside and downside moves.


The action in the indices remains problematic. While holding near highs, they are also off the highs and finding it difficult to move back up and hold the moves. I have said before that long-term runs have a hard time dying as people keep believing that the upside will return after every hiatus; it takes several hard jolts to wear the bids out of the market. Right now, there have not been a lot of hard jolts, thus there are still bids returning.

The bids, as the stock indices show, however, do not have the same force and effect. If they are basing that works; they can take their time, wear out those trying to sell the market, then break higher. That remains to be seen. There are still solid patterns breaking higher but there are also sellers taking shots at them when they do, testing the water to see how strong the bids are. We are still playing good upside breaks (entering BRKS today), but also some good downside breaks (e.g. CMI). The downside have worked sporadically (e.g. XLNX) but the bids have often won out. Now we have a few more positions downside and we will see if the market fails in this bounce attempt.

Have a great evening!

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +7.21; DJ +20.72; NASDAQ +24.16

Nice rebound in the futures, and DJ30 would be higher but for IBM acting as a 60 point Dow-drag. IBM missed revenues and of course the bald headed guy on CNBC is saying all is well because it was just a matter of not getting the deals signed by the earnings cutoff date. IBM was firing people as close as two weeks ahead of earnings we have learned from many former IBM employees who were sworn to silence ahead of earnings. Entire units were laid off. THAT does not sound as if it was just a matter of timing on the signing of new contracts.


Taxes: The LATEST word of the day on taxes is that there is a push for a corporate tax reduction versus tax reform as that is 'doable' this year. Reform would be put off until next year (read forever). Here is the deal: they are talking a tax reduction or holiday for those funds overseas then a nominal reduction in the corporate tax. To me, nominal is anything down to 20% or above. To really make a difference the corporate tax rate needs to be 15% or lower, and 15% is high. IF YOU BUY THAT A CORPORATE TAX REDUCTION IS NEEDED AT ALL, YOU SHOULD WANT A 0% CORPORATE TAX. Corporate taxes are passed directly to the consumer, and the consumer pays higher prices as a result. Remove the corporate tax fiction and give CONSUMER, the taxpayers, a tax cut that matters.

More Tax Facts: 44% of Americans won't pay ANY income tax for 2016. It must be nice to have no skin in the game while the middle class, what is left of it, pays a higher percentage of their disposable income as tax than of course those who pay no taxes and those who have a higher tax rate.


The Dollar: FT quotes Treasury Secretary Mnuchin as saying Trump is "absolutely not" trying to talk the dollar lower.


Earnings Beats: MS, YHOO, ISRG

Misses: IBM (TL); BLK (TL); TXT (TL). Well, what do you know? Revenue misses have returned in force after a one-quarter hiatus.


Fed: Fed Funds Futures contract has shifted the higher probability (66.1%) to a September rate hike versus a June rate hike. Hence the troubles for the financials.


Minimum Wage: New Harvard Study says that for every $1 increase in the minimum wage, there is a 4% to 10% increase in restaurant failures. Second study in the past year that takes real life effects/facts of minimum wage hikes and concludes that an increased minimum wage does in fact reduce business activity, particularly in those areas relying heavily on labor. Guess what? Restaurants will robotize, there will only be the larger chains that can afford to do so, and thus the small, local, and mom & pop restaurants will be forced out. Way to go do-gooder law makers.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.20% 10 year. Yields rebounding some from the Tuesday dump.

EUR/USD: 1.0726 vs 1.07307

USD/JPY: 108.928 vs 109.525

Oil: 52.44, +0.03

Gold: 1286.30, -7.80


Futures are off the morning highs but are holding gains into the open in quite a snapback from the Tuesday weakness. Oil, Chips will be very important as they attempt a rebound. Remember, SP500, DJ30 are in good patterns testing the 50 day MA. NASDAQ is decent, trying to hang on. RUTX, SP400, SOX have something to prove on this bounce -- if it can hold.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -6.95; DJ -77.92; NASDAQ -16.30

Futures started weak, rallied into 7:00ET but have faded again since. After a solid Monday percentage gain on no volume, a bit of a Tuesday hangover.

The economic data is still weak but the production data was not bad.

Housing Starts, March: -6.8% vs -3.9% exp vs 5% prior. Worst showing in 4 months.

Permits: +3.6% vs -6.0% prior. Had to snap back some.


Capacity Utilization, March: 76.1 versus 75.7 prior

Industrial Production: 0.5% vs 0.0% prior


Earnings beats: BAC; UNH; CUDA

Misses: GS (TL, BL); HOG (TL); JNJ (TL). Still the same old story for the past several years: the top line miss dominates.


UK: PM May calls for a snap election to try and consolidate her power and make the Brexit push and changes faster and easier.


Oil: Saudi Arabia back tracks some on its statement earlier to extend the production cut 6 months, saying it is "too early" to make that decision. Oil is sluggish in response.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.225% versus 2.248%

EUR/USD: 1.0692 VS 1.06431

USD/JPY: 108.775 vs 109.150. Dollar lower again versus yen

Oil: 52.43, -0.23. Saudi Arabia back tracks some on its push for a 6 month oil production cut extension

Gold: 1286.30, -5.60. Testing some after the breakout.


Futures are fading into the open as the light volume bids from Monday dry up. The bounce from support Monday gets an early test. SP400, RUTX, SOX did not change their patterns Monday. The other indices are holding support and will have to do the same today and try to find bids. Thus far it is more of the same with the same narrow groups holding their patterns, trends, and moving higher, most of the market struggling.

FAANG was a NASDAQ leaders Monday. NFLX is hanging in after subscriber growth was higher, but it is one to watch for FAANG whether investors are still forgiving.




Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Monday, April 17, 2017

Market Alert - The Close

There was not a lot of great news out Monday, but the lack of a thermonuclear war over the Easter weekend appeared enough to put a bit of an upside bid under the market. The upside started in the pre-market and kept pushing stocks higher, with a last hour sprint to the close notched 1+% gains in the smaller indices and close to 1% gains in the large cap indices.

SP500 20.06, 0.86%
NASDAQ 51.64, 0.89%
DJ30 183.67, 0.90%
SP400 1.17%
RUTX 1.18%
SOX 1.31%

VOLUME: NYSE -9%, NASDAQ -14%. Of course on an upside day volume puts in its lowest session of the year. Oh that is great, not a lot of strength on a rebound after a weak price week.

A/D: NYSE +2.9:1, NASDAQ +2.3:1. The small and midcap stocks helped push up the breadth, but it was not blowout as you would expect to see with 1+% gains on the growth indices in a rebound. Solid, just not affirming a new upside move.

China's GDP topped expectations on a year/year basis (6.9% versus 6.8% expected and prior) even though it missed month/month (1.3% vs 1.7% prior.).

New York Empire PMI, April missed its mark: 5.2 versus 13.0 expected versus 16.4 March. It would appear the soft sentiment data is catching back down to the actual hard data.

In light of this development, the Atlanta Fed lowered its Q1 GDP outlook to a whopping 0.5%. High praise indeed.

The stock move played off of a bit of oversold anxiety to end last week where DJ30 and SP500 undercut the 50 day MA. Both rebounded to hold over 50 day EMA. NASDAQ, the only index to hold the 50 day last week, held that level and bounced. RUTX and SP400 recovered off the selling as well, holding the March lows. Possible double bottoms off their pullbacks. Indeed, SP500 and DJ30 show the same action.

SOX gapped higher off the Thursday gap lower to a hammer doji and recovered some lost ground, but it is still well below the 50 day MA's as well as the closing just below the June/November up trendline. SOX is an important barometer for the market, and while it was up on the session it did not reverse the late week action.

SOX is still lagging the other indices, though all were down last week and up on Monday. There is potential for some double bottoms at support for several indices and how they continue to respond after holding that support Monday of course will tell that story. Many semiconductors have to show they can hold the line and move higher, thus keeping an important leadership group actually leading.

In the end there were some really solid moves Monday in many sectors, not all of which were just rebounds off last week's selling. Biotechs showed good action again, even with the rest of the market rallying, a good sign of strength in that sector. EXAS, CORT, BLUE put in good moves, others look solid, e.g. FOLD, IMMU.

FAANG rallied nicely. Retail is holding its gains, Software is decent.

Others rebounded without a lot of strength. Machinery such as CAT, CMI bounced but had nothing else. Industrial metals did not bounce at all.

Very mixed session even though it was up. Good sectors still look good overall, those that have struggled were up but didn't necessarily turn any patterns around. That makes Monday another day where the indices did what they had to do to keep the move going, but the move in itself was not conclusive.

That has been the market's story, however, and thus far each attempt at selling has failed. Sure there are many saying it has to fail and this is the time it will fail. Yes, it certainly has to fail, the question is always when. The indices have yet another chance to show they can hold support and continue higher just as they have done many times in this rally. Perhaps the times are a changing given the inability to put forth tax and healthcare reform, but there continue to be tidbits of news that a new healthcare plan is on the make. That, of course, is offset by comments such as those from Mnuchin today saying that his prior August timetable may not work out.

Well, we picked up some upside in biotech, a chip (NVDA), and NUS (anti-aging personal care products). Now we see if the sellers stay away yet again and see another market recovery.

Have a great evening!

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - To the Close

Some decent recoveries but index patterns did not change all that much.

NFLX reports afterhours, making a good move on the session, inclined to let it just run on through.

Picked up some BLUE, NVDA, NUS upside as this is somewhat of a healing day and those are making good moves. Nothing really resolved for the market, but it is holding the move into the close.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +6.85; DJ +76.75; NASDAQ +19.26

The news is still not good, but today US equity markets are snapping back, perhaps on pre-weekend fear followed by some relief that nothing major occurred.

NKorea tried a missile launch that exploded on takeoff.

China GDP 6.9% vs 6.8% exp and 6.8% year/year.

French elections: Still a week away, still worries about the jump by the communist candidate and also some allegations of double counting absentee votes. It's the Russians!

Jobs: GM adding 1100 in San Francisco area to develop self-driving technology.

Empire Manufacturing PMI: 5.2 vs 13.0 exp vs 16.4 prior.
Perhaps the sentiment data that surged post-election is topping out in the face of the hard data that has not improved. Yes there was some more spending and buying post-election on hope, but hope needs actual policies, and tax and healthcare reform are effectively dead right now.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.232% vs 2.232%. Dropped close to 2.2% but yields have recovered some.

EUR/USD: 1.0645

USD/JPY: 108.541. Dollar continues lower against yen.

Oil: 53.06, -0.12

Gold: 1289.60, +1.10


Stocks are set to open higher on some relief of no major issues over the weekend. Oil still faces resistance and those stocks really struggled into the weekend. We will see how those stocks along with the important semiconductors can recover. Small caps and midcaps sold hard into the weekend and we will see if this bounce can get their patterns back on track. NASDAQ is holding its trend; it will have a chance to show leadership today.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Thursday, April 13, 2017

Market Alert - To the Close

NASDAQ is about the only indices, okay the only index, hanging onto support. SP500, DJ30 are below the 50 day MA's and SOX has not recovered any ground. RUTX, SP400 are dragging lower as well. At least some of the small biotechs are still strong or look good, e.g. CNAT, XOMA, IMMU, INVA. That is about all, however. Materials, metals, other economic expansion areas are struggling.

SP500 -10.07, -0.43%
NASDAQ -16.74, -0.28%
DJ30 -86.73, -0.43%
SP400 -0.86^
RUTX -0.90%
SOX -0.45%

We picked up some IWM to have some more downside exposure. AMD is a possibility before the close. Looking at closing SN, WFT in oil; PIR is coming off the lows and the prior low but it is not a powerful move. CX is dogging it along with other materials.

Long weekend and with so many worried about the economic future and geopolitical issues, there are those lightening up. Don't like selling or buying that much in this situation, but the mentioned stocks are not looking healthy.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -3.98; DJ -32.86; NASDAQ -9.28

Banks: C, JPM, WFC all beat. WFC reports a 23% drop in mortgage applications.

PIR: Beats but gives weak current quarter guidance.

PPI: -0.1 vs 0.0 exp vs 0.3 February. First drop in 7 months.

Core PPI: 0.0 vs 0.3% prior


China: Reinitiates reverse repos, injecting 110B yuan

Exports jumped to 23.9B versus 10.0 B expected

ACA: Trump finally taking action, hopefully, to end the dividend sweeps from Fannie and Freddie to pay off insurers to not leave the system. Courts ruled illegal so it is easy to not pursue the appeal, stop the payments, and the system does indeed collapse because it cannot survive without subsidies. In other words it cannot function.

Syria: A report just hitting saying hundreds killed by a US air strike that hit ISIS chemical weapons. We will see if there is confirmation. The story is from the Syrian government.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.264% vs 2.237% 10 year. Bonds off a bit after a run

EUR/USD: 1.0631 VS 1.0671

USD/JPY: 109.144 VS 108.296. Dollar rebounding some from a sharp selloff

Oil; 53.24, +0.13

Gold: 1289.10, +11.00


Earnings started, banks beat but are down. Market is not in a good mood, opening lower, but off the lows. Now is the time to show some bids. Perhaps the best the market can do today is get out holding support.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Market Alert - The Close

A weak start, a weak finish, and unlike Tuesday, there is nothing to discuss that was very positive. The small and midcap indices faded sharply, metals stocks lost their upside aspirations, and SOX broke decisively below the 50 day MA. At least SP500, DJ30, and NASDAQ held the 50 day MA. For now.

SP500 -8.85, -0.38%
NASDAQ -30.61, -0.52%
DJ30 -59.44, -0.29%
SP400 -1.16%
RUTX -1.29%
SOX -1.71%

VOLUME: NYSE -2%, NASDAQ -8%. Volume did decline on the downside. As there were no bids, the sellers were rather tame as well.

A/D: NYSE -2.2:1, NASDAQ -2.2:1. With the small and midcaps struggling, not surprising the decent level of negative breadth.


The other markets moved in directions that are in line with weaker stocks that are perhaps starting to factor in a less robust economy in the absence of tax and healthcare (also a tax) reform.

Bonds rallied again, pushing the yield to 2.264%, the lowest since 2015.

Gold continued its move through the 200 day SMA.

Oil sold back a bit after approaching the 54-55 resistance.

The dollar continued lower, aided by President Trump stating he felt the dollar was too high and need to come down. Okay, if you are not going to back a strong dollar you get a weaker dollar, but that is a BIG mistake. That is a George Bush (I and II) policy path and it is a bad one as they proved. You cannot devalue your way to prosperity. You make your currency so valuable that everyone wants it, that they want to invest in dollar denominated assets.

CHARTS

SOX: After the Tuesday furious recovery off a 50 day MA breach, Wednesday SOX just gave up. Kind of like the middle aged man who gets out of shape, his clothes don't fit right, and he just figures he will never be in shape again. Starts wearing sweat bottoms, loose fitting shirts, and eats and drinks whatever he wants. Not a pretty sight. Anyway, SOX is threatening to put on the sweats as it broke lower and closed near the session low.

SP400/RUTX: After talking up the midcaps and small caps and 0.6% and 0.75% moves they give up over 1%. The possible short inverted head and shoulders pattern is still there, but they made it hard on themselves, closing back below the 50 day MA's.

NASDAQ: After testing the 50 day MA on the Tuesday low and rebounding similar to SOX, NASDAQ just went ahead and fell to the 50 day SMA. Lighter trade so no surge in sellers, but today NO ONE was buying on the dip. Still trending higher, still can put in a higher low just by holding the 50 day MA support. That is enough for now and given the poor session.

SP500/DJ30: Down but quite modestly as the two NYSE large cap indices closed at the 50 day MA. No real change for these wild caballeros as they continue their slow, slow lateral test of the 50 day MA. I suppose on this session if you are not breaking down you are ahead. Sad state of affairs.

LEADERSHIP

Metals: Not doing it. The on one day, off the next action continued and Wednesday was an off day. ZEUS gave up its Tuesday move and more, AKS dove below the 200 day SMA, X really made us mad by rolling back over hard. FCX gave up any pretext that it might get stronger. AA was hammered lower almost 7%. Perhaps some downside opportunities, e.g. RS, AKS.

Semiconductors: As you would surmise from SOX' break lower, the chips didn't have a banner upside session. Much of the issue related to QCOM, getting hammered in another lawsuit, losing over $800M in binding arbitration (no appeal) to Blackberry. Oh the humiliation. SWKS broke sharply through the 20 day EMA. AVGO broke decisively through the 50 day EMA. SLAB is not diving but its pattern suggests it could. XLNX continues lower, almost to our initial target. MLNX held up well enough as did QRVO. MU off harder, AMD down but at some support. BRKS is fine as is AMKR and PLAB. Not all is lost, but there was an important move.

FAANG: Somewhat toothless on the session but definitely not rolling over as FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX all held reasonably well at near support.

Retail: Held up well enough as well. JWN nice and flat. COST is fine. DLTR still in a very nice pullback. EBAY is solid.

Financial: Struggled post-Trump. BAC faded to the March lows. C could not recover the 50 day MA's. JPM lost a bit of ground. Just not able to get going.

Transports: UAL's loss is other airline's gain. SAVE rallied over 2.5%. LUV gapped over the 50 day SMA. As for truckers, whatever good vibes the KNX/SWFT merger brought, it left. ODFL fell to a lower low on this pullback. WERN broke back below the 200 day SMA. JBHT might be able to pull off a short double bottom at the 200 day SMA.

Oil stocks: Up early, could not hold the move. APA umped then faded to flat. APC was up but slipped back on low volume to continue working on its pattern. NE broke below the recent lows. CRK jumped then faded some of the Tuesday rally. Just not a lot of pop in the group today, but still look good to move higher.

Biotechs/Drugs: A tougher day than Tuesday but not bad. CNAT faded just a bit. IMMU still holding the 50 day MA test. INVA off just a bit. XOMA holding the 20 day with a tight doji. EXAS with a decent enough move off the 20 day EMA though light on trade.

We closed some upside positions Wednesday. Many are testing back; that is what the market is doing right now. If there is a rebound, great. If the weakness remains and chips continue to flounder, not too crazy about seeing how far positions will test. There are still very good setups and solid tests of support. We will see if the good patterns can hold the line and deliver a new upside leg off this test. If not, you have to look at more downside plays to take advantage of the fade.

Have a great evening!


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - To the Close

DJ30, SP500, NASDAQ are hanging on at the 50 day MA, but SOX has broke below it. SP400, RUTX have identical -1.21% losses as the decent Tuesday move is reversed. Gold higher, oil off, bond yields lower, growth stock indices struggling. All indications of less than confidence in the economic future.

Dollar slammed as Trump told the WSJ that the dollar is too strong and he wants low rates. Sure he does; a government and his GS cronies in the cabinet are big government people who know rates have to remain low to run their deficits. So, seniors and savers get slammed again along with all Americans as the dollar is hit. Once more the average Joe bears the brunt of the government's poor policies.

Stocks are trying to come up off the lows with not a lot of time left in the session. Unless they roar higher, there is trouble with the chips breaking lower and money not moving to the small and midcaps today.

Closed some positions but on energy stocks such as SN and WFT are down but testing support. PLX sold, is recovering and is at the 50 day MA. Still an ugly session and we are closing the last part of that position.

SP500 -9.44, -0.40%
NASDAQ -30.12, -0.51%
DJ30 -66.97, -0.33%
SP400 -1.13%
RUTX -1.27%
SOX -1.71%



Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -2.78; DJ -12.3; NADSAQ -4.05

There is actually some economic news today, potentially positive, but the markets are not buying it whether equities or bonds.

In a 'Mornings with Maria' interview, the President answered questions about tax reform and healthcare, etc. Trump went back to the 'healthcare before taxes' as the best approach. Congressman Mark Meadows of the Freedom Caucus is today saying that they are 'very close' to a deal on healthcare. Again. As noted, the market is not buying it, and thus if they are successful there will be a rally. THAT is what the market is waiting on at this point. If it doesn't come, the geopolitical issues can lead to further selling.


Import Prices, March: -0.2% as expected vs 0.4 prior. 4.2% year/year versus 4.8% prior

Imports ex-oil: 0.2% vs 0.3% prior

Exports: +0.2% vs 0.3% February.


Jobs: WMT is reportedly cutting 'hundreds of jobs' in an effort to keep pace with Amazon. The cuts are white collar, again, in international, Sam's Club, and tech divisions.


Russia: Tillerson gets cold shoulder in Russia, Putin won't meet with him, instead issuing a statement saying 'trust between Russia and US has collapsed.' Very interesting dynamic. For the FIRST TIME, Putin has to deal with a strong US President. Bush was hoodwinked, Obama was disengaged, Russia could do what it wanted. Putin does not know how to deal with Trump, someone who will act if he feels necessary. So Putin is trying the hard line, the only thing he knows. He is not stupid. I remember him making a fool of Michael Dell when a bunch of US tech CEO's went to Russia, met with Putin, and Dell almost condescendingly asked Putin 'what can we do to help you?' Putin responded 'we don't need your help.' Ouch.


France election: Panic in France as the communist candidate continues gaining in the polls. What do you expect? A socialist country where the policies are causing great disruption. They go to even more leftism as that is what they are trained in. Goodbye Europe.


China: Trump calls Xi. Further planning re NKorea?


Idiocy: Sweden's largest newspaper calls for a law to ban men driving cars to 'end terrorism.' How about banning idiots from writing for newspapers? Will that end the idiotic things newspapers print?


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.291% vs 2.30% 10 year. Bonds are still rallying.

EUR/USD: 1.0600 VS 1.0606

USD/JPY: 109.507 vs 109.691. Dollar still dropping versus yen

Oil: 53.68, +0.28. Still rallying toward the 54-55 resistance

Gold: 1277.30, +3.10. Still pushing the Tuesday break through the 200 day MA


Futures are near morning lows as the bell approaches. Tuesday started lower and sold hard before a decent-ish recovery. Will bids return again? Will FAANG stocks shake off Tuesday? Chips? Watching those areas and watching RUTX, SP400 to see if those can continue leadership. If so and the others still languish, you are seeing rotation out of areas into new areas, but no new money coming in, just moving it from one area to another. That shows less confidence in the market moving up, but not ready to sell it.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

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