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Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +0.17; DJ +6.01; NASDAQ -7.84

Well, futures are at least flat following another low volume upside session, avoiding an immediate selloff at the open. Of course there was only one new high from SOX, so the 'sell the new highs' program may not be in place today. Thus the market heads for a muddled open with NASDAQ lagging thanks to an EU ruling it owes over $14B in taxes.

Yes, the EU in its collectivism and 'individuality is fine if we all do the same thing' ways has ruled that Ireland wrongly gave AAPL 13.2BEUR tax breaks, resulting in "undue tax benefits" from 2003 to 2014. Strapped for cash, the EU apparently wants to drive the entirety of the island nations out of its grasp. It is about to lose several northern EU countries over the immigration issue. At some point people get tired of being dictated to by the elite. The US has swung to an oligarch and this election cycle shows the rumblings in the land as a result.

But I digress. The upshot of the EU ruling is AAPL is hit with a big tax bill that it will have to pay if it is to keep selling in the EU countries. Thus AAPL is lower pre-market and so is NASDAQ.

Fed: Fischer can't keep his mouth shut. None of them can, for that matter. He says the US is close to full employment. A mother's work is never done, and Fischer says the "work of a central bank is never done" in some kind of sick bastardization of the Fed's mandate. It should be that a central bank's work is only occasional. But the Fed has expanded its power to economic micromanagement and it won't let it go without being forced to by Congress. Oh yea, THAT will happen.

Case/Shiller shows June housing +5.1%. Just what does this report mean anyway? When you have to have the authors come onto the show and explain what 5.1% means then you have issues with your reporting.

Sales: ANF reported its 14th straight month of SSSales declines. GIII (apparel) missed on earnings. DWS (shoes) beat top line.

Bonds: 1.585 vs 1.57%

EUR/USD: 1.1154 VS 1.1187

USD/JPY: 102.46 vs 101.87

Oil: 47.34, +0.36

Gold: 1321.80, -5.30. Continues to struggle post-Fed member comments last week.

Futures are stumbling laterally toward the open. No immediate selloff as noted, FB jumped higher Monday. Perhaps the non-AAPL FANG/NASDAQ big names can pick up the slack and provide some leadership they have been trying to show. Will watch that group.

Also watching biotechs and software as they have weakened; can they rebound?

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Monday, August 29, 2016

Market Alert - The Close

The major stock indices all closed with gains. Decent moves, but no new blast higher. At least there was no selloff after the Friday Fed barrage. High praise indeed. The NYSE indices, large cap to small cap, led the moves with twice the gain of NASDAQ and SOX on a percentage basis. FB posted a nice move, but the rest of the NASDAQ big names did not throw in, at least enough, to make a difference for that index. Basically the moves were decent enough but did not alter the index patterns in any respect.

SP500 11.34, 0.52%
NASDAQ 13.41, 0.26%
DJ30 107.59, 0.58%
SP400 0.71%
RUTX 0.56%
SOX 0.28%

VOLUME: NYSE -19%, NASDAQ -11%. A typical hallmark of upside moves in this rally it seems.

A/D: 2.7:1 NYSE, 1.7:1 NASDAQ. Solid enough on NYSE while NASDAQ was rather lame all around.

That means SP500 bounced from last week's fade, recovering the 20 day EMA but still below the prior August highs. DJ30 even gapped upside off of Friday's 50 day EMA test, recovering the 20 day as well and trying a higher low as discussed over the weekend. SP400 bounced off the 20 day EMA hold and came close to a new closing high, thus far keeping the trend up the 20 day intact. RUTX also bounce off of near support at the 10 day EMA but no new highs here, just keeping that trend going. SOX gapped to a higher closing high as it too trends up the 10 day EMA. NASDAQ recovered the 10 day EMA, and the big names were fairly decent, but as noted above, not enough to change the pattern from a near term heavy look over the 20 day EMA. Again, the indices moved higher with no change from the recent trends, volume, breadth.

The news was heralded a victory though some was decent, some was not.

July Income and Spending were in line with expectations (0.4% and 0.3% respectively) with June written higher on each by a tenth (0.3%, 0.5%). That means the savings rate was up as Americans saved more of what they made. That 5.7% savings rate was the first gain since March. Year/year income was up while spending was lower. They are both trying to bottom and rise after a long decline. That is somewhat positive but there is only so far it can go with the kinds of jobs predominantly produced in the current US economy.

Dallas Fed, August: -6.2 versus -1.3 in July versus -18 in June. Hopes for a turn had cold water splashed on them as the numbers headed lower again and now show 20 straight months of contraction. One respondent said that after the election is over and the 2016 economic data is reviewed, the conclusion will be that 2016 was a recession year. How about that economy?!

We picked up some positions in STX and VIP. Really considered AMZN, but it came off the session high on lower trade, hitting the prior August closing high and falling away. With the volume and that action we opted to wait and see if that acts as a barrier. Unfortunately, SOHU gapped higher again and ran away. We had some good moves in AGEN, APC, CWEI, FB, MMM, P, PLAY and others while still other plays remain set up well. With the majority of plays showing good price and pattern moves I guess we don't need no stinking volume -- for now. If they move higher and hit our targets, volume or not, that works.

Have a great evening!

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Market Alert - The Open

Futures: SP500 +3.36; DJ +13.60; NASDAQ +5.36

Spending and income are up though futures did not surge on the news. Futures have been in a slow move higher after the Friday mixed close but the market is still sluggish. Watching the NASDAQ big names this morning to see if they continue the Friday move and provide NASDAQ leadership and aid SOX and RUTX in their new highs.

Bonds: 1.607% vs 1.62% 10 year

Oil: 46.05, -0.80

Gold 1323.80, -2.10

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Friday, August 26, 2016

Market Alert - Last Hour

Stocks are trying to come off session lows that were rather dicey. The indices were breaking sharply lower with DJ30 at the 50 day EMA before rebounding to reduce the losses. SP500, RUTX, NASDAQ testing the 20 day EMA. SOX and NASDAQ have flipped back to positive with some sharp upside the past hour. Indeed the upside is now kicking in on the other indices as well. Perhaps they can get enough bids to recover decently.

Knew it would be a roller coaster after Yellen, and Fischer came out and rained on the doves, noting that Yellen's comments "were consistent with a September rate hike." Perish the thought, right? A 25BP hike? Can the world stand it? That is, I suppose, a valid question.

Today the indices are not wild about it but have recovered lost ground. The problem with this kind of session is there is always an aftershock but as it is Friday, it can hold and rebound. The losses are not bad but we may close a few here before the close.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Market Alert - Yellen

The case for a rate hike is stronger the recent months. Growth is sufficient to improve labor markets. Anticipates gradual hikes as appropriate. Etc. You know the story.

Stocks sold initially but are starting to rally again, pushing toward the early session highs.

SP500 9.50, 0.44%
NASDAQ 24.88, 0.24%
DJ30 80.84, 0.44%
SP400 0.37%
RUTX 0.28%
SOX 0.83%

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +2.88; DJ +27.89; NASDAQ +2.75

Yellen speaks from Jackson Hole at 10ET. Ahead of that a lot of Fed-speak as her minions hit the airwaves.

GDP, Q2 2nd: 1.1% vs 1.1% vs 1.1% (from 1.2%)
Personal consumption: 4.4%, ticking higher from the first read. Still quite strong even as Dollar Stores say the low end of the US consumer has collapsed.

Dollar Store notes that the US consumer has improved -- in some areas -- but the lower end has fallen. This parallels our research but we also note that costs such as the ACS and education are also crushing out the middle class. There are pockets of solid consumerism in regions of the country, e.g. DC, New York, LA, Dallas, but much of the US is really struggling and indeed still losing ground.

In that context, Bullard was speaking this morning.
Bullard: Yr/year growth is only 1.2%, below trend for the last year. The Fed forecast growth trend growth, but that has not happened. The economy is "in a cyclical low-growth regime."

Bullard was asked if low rates were the cause of the slow growth. He dodged the question, instead talking about where the Fed is right now.

The Fed, he noted, is "pretty close to its goals, pretty close to a neutral rate," but it is important to look at this in the context of the "next 2 years." The Fed has to "rethink our normalization plans." Bullard says the Fed should not predict long term rates, just go for the short term made for today's situation of low productivity, low growth rates.

In sum, it would appear Bullard is saying the Fed is near raising rates, but also that there is likely no further hikes anytime soon as the Fed is near where it feels neutral rates are. Thus he is saying they could hike soon (September) and then likely done as monetary policy cannot do much more from there.

Wow. That could put a hike on the table next month, but then nothing for a long time. Unless Yellen is replaced in an election regime change. Then who knows? There would be tax cuts, some stimulus items, some rollback of regulations to get a business environment conducive to creating and running business. Taken the burden off the middle class and entrepreneurs would be huge for economic growth, certainly better than the policies in place that have produce the worst string of growth since the Great Depression. Oh, that includes Bush's terms as well as his policy was quite muddled with mixed emphasis that didn't change the structural issues that were building and have really taken hold over the last 8 years.

Bonds: 1.568% versus 1.58% 10 year. Somewhat flat line heading into the Yellen

EUR/USD: 1.1290 VS 1.1278

USD/JPY: 100.34 vs 100.56

Oil: 47.26, -0.07

Watching the analysts on the financial statements, all are now saying the Fed is ready to hike rates and that would not be a good thing, apparently trying to front run story to ease the news on the financial markets. A lot of 'yes they will hike and could be September, but won't likely hike for a long time after that.

So, Yellen speaks at 10:00 ET and there will be short term implications. She has been remarkably quiet though her minions are starting to speak. They always do just before she does, voicing their opinions so everyone can see they are 'independent', etc. Unlike other Fed chairs, Yellen doesn't really have a surrogate governor, a mouthpiece who basically talks the chairman's views.

After Yellen speaks the reaction could be more negative if she 'talks tough' (something I don't think she has in her quiver) the market could have a short term setback. I will say that over a week period, even shorter, I don't think the market will have a negative reaction to the prospect of another 25BP hike with nothing again for a long time.

It is Friday, Yellen is speaking at the Hole after skipping last year. That means there could be some exaggerations in market moves. We will watch and see if positions hold support and patterns after the gyrations -- if any -- start to subside.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Thursday, August 25, 2016

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -3.59; DJ -26.48; NASDAQ -7.43

The countdown to Yellen on Friday at Jackson Hole is underway and stocks are sluggish -- again -- in advance. The market is suffering from chronic inability to hold a gain. Yes the market is holding up in some cases, trending higher in others (RUTX, NASDAQ, SOX). One day higher, the next day gives it up. That suggests a market that is ultimately undecided about the future but there is nowhere else to put money so they put it in equities and bonds. Then when news hits it readjusts accordingly. In short, not a ton of conviction.

There are still good leaders. Biotechs/Drugs took a hit Wednesday but other groups held up well. That is the one saving grace of this market.

BUT . . . this slow grind cannot last forever. At or near index highs, unable to push higher. Low volume. You can see why the billionaires are concerned. Some much more than concern.

Stocks will have a chance to prove bids again today, and it seems better at starting softer and coming back. It certainly cannot hold a lead of late.

Durable Goods Orders, July: 4.4% versus 3.5% exp vs -4.2% prior (from -4.0%)

Ex-trans: 1.5% vs 0.4% exp vs -0.3% prior (from -0.5%)

Business proxy: 1.6% vs 0.3% expected.

Year over year the orders stink (-6.4%) but mo/mo showing some hope as economic data continues swinging back and forth.

Bonds: 1.577% vs 1.156%

EUR/USD: 1.1293 VS 1.1300. Dollar up slightly

USD/JPH: 100.52 vs 100.30

Oil: 46.65, -0.16

Stocks starting lower, again apparently waiting on Yellen Friday. Earthquake in Italy is tragic, storms in Midwest are tragic, Louisiana flooding is tragic, Western fires -- you get the picture.

Mylan came on CNBC and said it had to have a list price of $600 but that was never intended for consumers to pay that. The CEO was clearly very frustrated by the situation, so much so she could not really tell her story. The salient takeaway: the US subsidizes the rest of the world's cheaper drugs, something I was arguing long before Obamacare was passed. Now the situation is even worse thanks to the ACA as people cannot even pay their deductibles under the ACA to use the insurance they have to buy. So, we have people insured but it is wasted money because they cannot pay the deductible. Just let them self insure with an HSA and at least have the $300 (with the rebate) to get an Epipen. We need them in our family and with every other cost a family faces going up, up, up, it hurts. Families save for college, medical care, housing, etc., but then costs go higher and higher but you get no relief because you 'make a lot of money.' Hmmm. I guess that is why there is so much uprising in this year's election cycle?

As for stocks, starting slow and we will see if bids return. Key sector of the day is biotechs/drugs: can they rebound from Wednesday? Don't want the market to lose these kind of leaders or the move erodes.

Will defend positions again but watching to see how the weaker open plays out, i.e. if the bids once again return.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +0.50; DJ -1.3; NASDAQ +1.52

Not much economic news out this morning, no scheduled releases. Italian 6+ earthquakes is the big story and an unfolding tragedy.

Oil: API reports +1.4M bbl versus -1.0M prior
Gasoline: -2.2M vs +2.2M prior
Oil is lower on this news.

Earnings beats: LCI, DY, INTU (but lower guidance)
Misses: EXPR (top and bottom line). It is said the clothes line is not that great and kids tell me that is the case.

Gold: Lower as someone dropped $1.5B on the market this morning.

Fed: Barclays says the Fed has to hike in September or it will never hike. JPM says Yellen will disappoint the market on Friday with her Jackson Hole speech. Ooh, scary.

Seattle: New studies find that, golly gee, raising the minimum wage has reduced jobs for those the pay hike was designed to help. The next difference is that group is on average worse off in terms of take home pay after the minimum wage was hiked.

Bonds: 1.546% vs 1.54%

EUR/USD: 1.1215 vs 1.1309. Dollar higher.

USD/JPY: 100.27 VS 100.20. Higher vs yen as well

Oil: 47.37, -0.73. Off even as dollar rises as inventories news is not conducive to higher prices.

Gold: 1332.50, -13.60

Futures are at the session lows as the market continues its inability to push a gain, hold a lead, whatever cliche you want to use. Watching the small cap index as it made the sharp break Tuesday. Will see if it can hold the gains. Also watching SOX as it has run higher and is due a test. Will other areas outside RUTX take up its slack?

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Market Alert - To the Close

Definitely a small and midcap kind of session with those indices leading the action, SOX not too far behind.

SP500 4.72, 0.22%
NASDAQ 16.90, 0.32%
DJ30 19.05, 0.10%
SP400 0.53%
RUTX 0.79%
SOX 0.49%

Semiconductors and biotechs are a bit soft (read flattish) after stronger starts. That applies to many stocks today: solid start and rally but struggling to hold the move. Still good position and patterns, just some money flowing to small and midcaps on this day.

Rotation and money moving to new areas are indications of a market that remains healthy. SPY weakened the past half hour so we will see if it can hang on into the close.

Picked up some CELG and C; not bad patterns still, but they came back on us after first jumping after we entered.

Will see how the indices close as stocks are weakening toward the close and SP500, DJ30 may have trouble holding gains. Midcaps, small caps, however, still look good.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Target Hit alert on NPTN was sent in error.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +7.76; DJ +73.58; +20.54

Well, futures are going to try the upside to start a session for a change. The market, as measured by SP500, has just gone through the lowest volatility period since 1995. That obviously scares some as the billionaire bears, brokerages, and big banks provide the cases in point. Hey, it didn't make us comfortable either, but we keep seeing good stocks in good position to move higher. We will see if this early rise has staying power.

Oil: Lower as GS says the rebound in prices if fragile as anyone can ramp production and undercut talk of Russia/Saudi deals, etc.

Earnings: some excitement thanks to BBY. BBY beat top and bottom line with same store sales jumping. Been a long time coming and it is a nice development for the economy.

Misses: SJM. With a name like Smuckers, it's got to be good jam. But how about earnings? Not so good as it missed on the top line and is getting jammed lower.

M&A: Bayer talking buying MON

EU PMI: 51.8 vs 52.0 exp vs 52.0 prior

Germany PMI: 53.6 vs 53.5 vs 53.8

Bonds: 1.548% vs 1.54% 10 year

EUR/USD: 1.13381 vs 1.1323

USD/JPY: 100.04 vs 100.316

Oil: 46.96, -0.45

Gold: 1347.50, +4.10

Futures are hanging in as the bell approaches. Sentiment is buoyed by some better views of retail -- their charts have shown another round of improvement as money has rotated their way for a 3rd time over the past 9 months. BBY may help more money come their way again.

As noted, weeks of lethargy outside of SOX and to a lesser extent NASDAQ, RUTX has led to worry. It is turning into a situation where those shorting a dull market get ripped? Those 100% or otherwise predominantly negative going to get squeezed after I discussed the sentiment paradox last night? That topic came up not because of any great prescience, just that the timing for something to happen is getting ripe.

The things to watch: how the leaders move. C is up again and we wish we were in Monday as noted last night. That is okay, we can still do it. Okay, how do the leaders work? Do the big names come back in on NASDAQ? We have a new GOOG play at the ready.

Also, however, we have to be aware of that pattern of a sharp day of gains then a reversal and/or subsequent lethargy. Will the upside sentiment have staying power this time or is the half life still one session? You cannot gauge that necessarily on an intraday basis in one session unless there is an intraday reversal. What you do is look at the leaders in position, and if they are moving well we participate in them.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Monday, August 22, 2016

Market Alert - The Close

Going nowhere fast to start the week as the indices did come back from early weakness to close -- basically flat. That continues mostly flat action the past five weeks for SP500, DJ30, and SP400. For NASDAQ and RUTX, just 2 weeks moving laterally. New highs have been posted, but it is no new surge upside. Outside of SOX and its higher highs as well as the areas of leadership, the market has traded flat.

SP500 -1.23, -0.06%
NASDAQ 6.22, 0.12%
DJ30 -23.15, -0.12%
SP400 0.06%
RUTX 0.24%
SOX 0.03%

VOLUME: NYSE -17%, NASDAQ -4%. Post expiration low trade though volume was still relatively low on expiration.

A/D: NYSE flat, NASDAQ 1.2:1.

That flat overall trade right at new highs leaves those bearish even more so as the overall market fails to push its new highs significantly higher for a month or more. Indeed, Mr. Gundlach, the man who really started the outspoken bear parade, revealed that he is now 100% short the market. Kind of precarious because he has nothing left to sell as if you are 100% short that means you are margined to the max.

That raises that old paradox of sentiment indicators. They are ultimately best as contrary indicators. If everyone is bullish, who is left to buy? If everyone is bearish and has sold or is maxed out downside to margin limits, who else is there to sell? That is when reversals occur. If all of the big names and many of the big brokerages and funds have their clients and portfolios all in short, that will take more downside converts to generate the selling they want.

With the investment surveys showing investment advisers approaching 60% bullish, that is where more sellers could emerge. If some negative stories hit, they could flip negative, and there are your new sellers. Thus far, however, the bulls are keeping the faith, no able to really drive stocks as a group higher, but not selling them off either.

While most stocks went really nowhere, some of the same leaders continued higher. Some; even these struggled to hold gains. MRVL enjoyed a solid day in semiconductors. Drugs and biotechs were mostly upside again. Financial stocks posted very modest gains. Many still look ready to go, just need the push. Hmm. It has been that way for awhile now.


No scheduled economic news but of course with central banks engaged in economic micromanagement, there is always someone talking. Monday it was the BOJ and the Fed Vice Chairman.

Kuroda at the BOJ, now that the Finance Minister has punted to the BOJ as of July, is shouldering the stimulus duty. Monday Kuroda indicated the BOJ remains ready to introduce more stimulus, likely in September. So, keep buying equities because the BOJ is going to support them in Japan.

The US Fed continued its back and forth policy thrashing that is characterized by the FOMC members and Fed governors speaking 2 to 3 times per week about their views on what Fed policy should be and warning markets to beware as they could be surprised. Or, they simply state the obvious, i.e. the Fed will only hike once before 2018.

Monday Vice Chair Fischer, already at Jackson Hole, issued a note of caution for the markets, indicating it is wrong to believe no rate hikes for 2016 and that September, of course, is possible. More dovish FOMC minutes last week, more hawkish individual statements as a follow up. There is no theme among FOMC and individual members and governors. Or, the theme is there is no theme or consensus.

That leads to market participant confusion and indeed confusion among the large banks and brokers. Monday Rabobank penned a note stating the Fed likely won't hike in 2016 but it cannot admit that to be the case because that would be an admission that monetary policy is now ineffective. That is the fear out there, that day when the Fed tells the markets to jump and they don't.

Of course, there is ALWAYS the February 2016 last ditch effort, the direct intervention by world central banks in world markets. The central bankers have a pen and a phone; they can dial up intervention anytime without having to implement new policies and the coincident questions as to why a new policy was needed. Mandate? What's a mandate? We have powerful friends to take care of so look the other way.

Monday the flip back to the 'don't test your Fed' admonition put something of a damper on the session, and stocks didn't go anywhere. Again.

The Session

Well, maybe they didn't go anywhere as a group as noted. We did, however, pick up some ROVI as it broke higher again along with ATRS. BIIB jumped after the Friday close higher and we bought some, but it slid back to flat at the close. The big names on NASDAQ are not bad with FB bouncing, GOOG testing the 20 day EMA, AAPL holding a 10 day EMA test, and NFLX still looking good in its range. There are also financial stocks, more chips, and more drugs/biotechs looking pretty solid. They didn't all throw in Monday but they are still setting up well to give it a shot if the bids return their way.

Have a great evening!

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -4.24; DJ 44.46; NASDAQ -6.24

Futures are stumbling around to start the week, keeping last week's tradition of no direction intact. SOX rallied to end the week on some good earnings so we will be watching that, but once again stocks are trying to find some footing.

I guess the billionaires and big brokerages and banks don't watch CNBC. Why? Because I just heard a gushing 'everything is great in the world' spiel worthy of the last 1990's. Companies are killing it, Europe is great, Brazil is on the verge of nirvana.

You would not know that looking at the Fed's new Facebook site. The comments left by visitors are priceless. Not for boot licking praise. No, these are very cutting and accurate comments (for the most part) and satire regrading the Fed's mandates and its track record in meeting them. Funny reading.

Reality is not so funny. After the FOMC minutes were viewed as dovish, the individual Fed members are talking again. Thus you get this patchwork of commentary that flips hike expectations back and forth the same way a tennis ball is hit back and forth in a long volley. Yes a hike is imminent, no a hike won't occur until 2018.

Fischer is out at Jackson Hole saying that it is wrong to view no hikes for 2016, September is possible, etc. Rabobank is so exasperated it penned an article stating the Fed likely won't hike in 2016 but it cannot admit it won't because it would be an admission that monetary policy is now ineffective. I think we are pretty much at that point in realization now as a group. But, that won't stop the dancing because Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday after skipping the event last year.

More Stimulus? The BOJ's Kuroda in another personal flip flop says that more stimulus for Japan's economy is likely in September. Could this be a foreshadowing of a US rate hike that month?

M&A: PFE buying MDVN (prostate cancer drug). ANCUF buying CST (gas station operator)

Bonds: 1.551% versus 1.58%. Seems Fisher's rate hike comments didn't hurt bonds pricing in no hikes.

EUR/USD: 1.1302 vs 1.1325

USD/JPY: 100.37 vs 100.21

Oil: 47.30, -1.22

Gold: 1342.10, -4.10

Futures are off the lows but not rallying into the open. A mushy open as the market indices remain near their highs but cannot find any reason to turn back upside just yet. With more Fed speak out and even more to come on Friday when Yellen talks there is plenty of time for speculation, and that is the playground of stock indecisiveness.

Again, watching the semiconductors and techs to see if they catch a bid. Drugs/Biotechs are a bit excited today thanks to some M&A activity, one of the reasons Tech/Chips are heated a bit. Will see if that acts as a floor on the early weakness.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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