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Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Market Alert - CORRECTION COUP

This was triggered inadvertently. Looks good but volume is not there yet.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP+4.95; DJ +50.31; NASDAQ +22.84

Futures up early, rose to 7:00ET, faded some but holding gains. News? None. Very quiet before the FOMC minutes, ECB, etc.

Dollar: lower as Trump criticized the Fed and Powell, called China and EU currency manipulators. Did he leave anyone out? Not sure but he will likely get to them if he did.

Foreclosures: UP for the first time in 3 years with 4.4% of the markets reporting a rise. Small amount, but interesting nonetheless.

KSS: Beat handily on earnings


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.835% vs 2.819%

EUR/USD: 1.1511 VS 1.1487

USD/JPY: 110.33 VS 109.92

Oil 67.65, +1.20

Gold: 1197.10, +2.50


Futures are bouncing into the open for a record bull market. We will see how it holds.

______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Monday, August 20, 2018

Market Alert - Last Hour

SP400 at a new high level, SP500 at a new closing high level if it can hold. Not breakaway moves; I know, surprising. Just steady -- and slow -- in the move.

SP500 9.54, 0.34%
NASDAQ 12.71, 0.16%
DJ30 110.71, 0.43%
SP400 0.50%
RUTX 0.39%
SOX -0.02%

Retail up w/NKE upgrade helping it while LULU breaks sharply higher, JWN continues its move from earnings.

Big drugs are up again, industrial machinery solid, some financials (C strong, GS up nicely, JPM not), consumer services solid (ROKU, GRUB, DOCU), NFLX and GOOG bouncing back some while AAPL is off, NVDA unveiled new gaming chips and helped stem the tide of its post-earnings selling.

President is again criticizing the Fed chair about rate hikes, never a good move, at least for prior Presidents. Who knows, perhaps this one can pull it off.

Mostly letting positions work higher though did take some gain in NUVA, closed a struggling QRVO, took the rest of TTWO (though the latter is trying to recover). Looking at FFIV, MTCH as possible buys as they have crossed the entry point but volume remains sketchy. Still, we could pick up a partial at least so be watching for that.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

Alert Key
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +5.92; DJ +60.68; NASDAQ +17.21

Futures jumped about 4:00ET as china intervened in its currency sending the Shanghai shooting higher and pulling other world markets with it. This is not being widely discussed on the financial stations, but a clear cause and effect was generated. Indeed, futures were at best flat ahead of the news. Not soaring higher, but definitely improved.


TSLA: JPM cuts price to 195, down $113.


Trade: WHouse says Mexico deal 'even closer.'


M&A: PEP buying SODA


Week ahead: FOMC minutes, ECB minutes, Jackson Hole.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.841% vs 2.864%

EUR/USD: 1.1427 vs 1.1437

USD/JPY: 110.45 vs 110.49

Oil: 65.90, -0.01

Gold: 1193.80, +9.60


Futures are artificially higher, but isn't that the case much of the time? They are holding in the range since 4:00AM ET. That is not a clear indicator: often the market can fade off of this kind of open.

Last week was not bad, finishing better than it started. The key has been rotation, and regardless of this bounce higher early, the rotation effect seen likely remains.

______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Friday, August 17, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -2.59; DJ -21.11; NASDAQ -17.97

Futures trading in a modestly lower range all morning as the Thursday rally opens softer to end the week. Not necessarily a bad thing as softer opens are good in an uptrend, and this is not a big gap lower as the previous Friday. Small victories when the market is back and forth session to session.

The headlines: Lira drops suddenly, China's Shanghai composite breaks below the 2018 low and is now at a 2 year low. Those two are credited with the market softness. Sure, go with that if you want.


Canada: Consumer prices jumped in July to 3% year/year versus 2.5% expected, the highest since 2011. The loonie has spiked.


Earnings reports: Trump calls for a possible end to quarterly reporting so companies can focus on business more. He got the idea from a 'business leader.' Hmm.


Earnings beats: NVDA, AMAT, JWN. NVDA, AMAT lowered current quarter guidance.

Misses: DE (BL)


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.857% vs 2.871%

EUR/USD: 1.1405 vs 1.1371. Euro jumps back up

USD/JPY: 110.37 vs 110.91. Down here as well

Oil: 66.17, +0.71

Gold: 1185.10, +1.50


Well, at least there is no blow up pre-market though NVDA is down 2.1%, AMAT -4.2% heading toward the bell. MU down along with some other chips in the coattail effect. The warnings get everyone on edge.

One day up, one day down, plus it is Friday. That has meant a lower market of late, but there are several quality stocks in good patterns getting money pushed their way. At least want to see that continue.


______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Thursday, August 16, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +13.58; DJ +231.59; NASDAQ +45.09

Futures spike, setting the stage for a gap up off the 50 day MA's the indices tested again WED (SOX at the 200 day MA).

Reasons? The usual litany: China goes to Washington. Yes, a Chinese delegation is coming to DC in late August. No, not to pilfer US IP secrets as during the Clinton administration, but to talk trade. Nothing like some internal heat that even the communist block cannot censor to get the trade talks again.

Turkey: Lira continues a rebound. Indeed, China is now copying what Turkey copied from China -- limiting conversions to other currency to dry up the external market for yuan and thus making it easier for China to control (read stop the shorts).

Earnings: WMT beats big with online sales +40%. Biggest gains in WMT in 10+ years, basically forever, as it has revamped its store focus and it is having an impact.

Beats: WMT; CSCO; NTAP

Misses: JCP (TL, BL, lowers guidance -- the anti-WMT); JD (TL, BL)


Housing starts, July: 0.9% vs 8.3% expected. Not much of a bounce off that 9 month low. Interest rates, baby. Approaching 5% and that is squelching the housing market.


Philly Fed, August: 11.9 vs 23.0 exp vs 25.7 July. Not much happy to say about that. This is the first regional sentiment data to show a decline after a series of gains.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.864% vs 2.879%

EUR/USD: 1.1373 vs 1.374

USD/JPY: 110.62 vs 110.80

Oil: 65.28, +0.27

Gold: 1183.80, -1.20


Futures are off the highs but holding gains after gapping upside then rallying to a peak just before 7:00ET. Indices will gap up from the 50 day MA as noted.

Volatility? You bet. Still a factor though the upside gap makes everyone feel better and ignore the volatility. But, it is there as stocks gapped lower WED. Back and forth still, this time at support. That would suggest the bounce we are getting, BUT BUT BUT, the key is still will the move hold? Volatility to this level and now volatility off it, at least to start. After that, a steady move to higher highs?

Perhaps. The indices are certainly positioned to do so with these tests, and there are stocks in good position to take advantage of it.

______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -16.46; DJ -151.92; NASDA -59.17

After a day's respite upside, stocks are set to gap sharply lower. More Turkey worries are blamed.

Turkey: Lowered the allowable conversion of lira to 25% from 50% as a move to dry up the supply of lira outside Turkey to prevent shorting. China did this during is financial crisis.

Turkey appeals court denied American pastor's appeal.


China: Shanghai composite back near 2018 lows, yuan sharply lower. Again.


Retail Sales, July: 0.5 vs 0.1 exp vs 0.2 prior (from 0.5)

Ex-Auto: 0.6 vs 0.3 vs 0.2 (from 0.4%)

Control Group: 0.5% vs -0.1 prior (from 0.0)

Takeaway: Nice surge but taken away by the sharp revisions.


Non-Farm Productivity: 2.9% vs 2.0 exp vs 0.3 prior (from 0.4)

Unit Labor cost: -0.9 vs +0.5 exp vs 3.4 prior (from 2.9). Wow, another big revision upside accentuates the drop this past month.


Empire Mftrg: 29.2 vs 20.0 vs 22.6


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.857 vs 2.893%

EUR/USD: 1.1311 vs 1.1344

USD/JPY: 110.87 vs 111.20

Oil: 66.46, -0.58

Gold; 1193.30, -7.40


Futures tumbled from the early open to 7:30ET, bounced, then tested back to those lows at 9:00ET. Potential double bottom premarket but dubious whether any upside momentum holds through the opening bell.

Market is weak as stocks with really good earnings are sold as well as the results are now never good enough for the current market mindset. That Turkey is impacting US stocks when Turkey has not impact economically underscores the weakness. Some stocks showed good volume Tuesday in their lateral moves (V, VRSN, ADBE) and that was interesting for the upside, but interesting is not the same as buying.

Thus, another downside open as upside is again undermined. That has not changed since NASDAQ hit those new highs and was thrown back each time.


______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +8.82; DJ +74.30; NASDAQ +28.58

After the Turkey shoot stocks are bouncing as the lira posts a dead cat bounce. Markets around the globe breathe a relief sigh. US futures are up though off their pre-market highs, indeed, trending lower toward the open.

TSLA: Files an 8-k finally as the board sets up a committee to consider Musk's proposal. Whatever. More he said, she said. Company will go about its business as will Musk in the near term.


Bullish investors: Overweight US stocks +19% in the last quarter, the highest since 1/2015.


Import prices, July: Flat. Agriculture -5.3%, soybeans -14.1%


Earnings beats: HD crushes results, boosting Dow; TPR; AAP

Misses: BRI (TL); VIPS (China online retail)


Turkey: Says it will boycott iPhone and US electronics. Okay, they are all made in Asia anyway . . .


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.882% vs 2.875%

EUR/USD: 1.1386 vs 1.1396

USD/JPY: 110.851 vs 110.82

Oil: 68.18, +1.03

Gold: 1203.00, +4.10


Stocks are set to rebound off the lethargy, but the pre-market action is a gap higher early then eroding the gains since. Have to see how the early gaps hold as the market tries the opposite from the recent lower opens.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

Alert Key
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Monday, August 13, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -2.00; DJ -15.00; NASDAQ +2.75

Futures opened the session sharply lower as the Turkey contagion disease continued thanks to Erdogan and his threats of prison for anyone, citizen or not, he believes is interfering with Turkey's finance and economics. The rantings of a tin-plated dictator with delusions of god-hood (from an old 'Star Trek' episode).

Futures are well off their lows, aided at one point by a TWTR post that the American Pastor would be released by 8-15. That tweet has been debunked, but futures did not roll back over. They are just off recovery highs, holding the move toward the open.


Gold: trading at 1206, but spot prices are below 1200, an indication the world is handling the new and continuing Turkey situation well enough. If no one is rushing to gold, that shows not that much fear. It does not hurt that the US dollar remains quite strong and gold is priced in dollars.


TSLA: First lawsuits filed. Not a record in time for plaintiff's lawyers but not slow. Of course the 'funding secured' tweet is the target as stories from the weekend indicate the Saudi sovereign fund said it had no interest in TSLA. Of course, then Bloomberg reports that the Saudi fund is interested in talks. That may be, however, too late in the time line to help Musk. The stock is okay; TSLA futures are up 10 points.


NFLX: CFO is said to be resigning. NFLX is trading -6 points pre-market as investors speculate whether another exec was caught with his/her pants down so to speak.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.88% versus 2.873%

EUR/USD: 1.1421 vs 1.1411

USD/JPY: 110.76 vs 110.92

Oil: 67.38, -0.25

Gold: 1208.80, -10.2


The road remains rocky. Not only are the trade issues still very much at the forefront of investor concern, emerging markets are at risk as CDS (credit default swaps, the price of the price of insuring risk) surge as the buzz word for the week is again 'contagion'.

Stocks are trying to stabilize, but that does not mean there will not be more volatility as new headlines emerge.

As noted over the weekend, even with all of the Turkey issues on top of trade, the indices themselves are thus far holding their trends quite well. There are also good moves being tested, and HOW they respond from these tests will tell the more important story for the stock indices trying to avoid rolling over at the highs and indeed put in new, clear and clean new highs.



______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

Alert Key
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