Search This Blog

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +2.88; DJ +8.55; NASDAQ +6.13

Futures rose very early in the morning and have held a tight, lateral range right up to the bell. Those kind of moves are not very indicative of anything. Trends tell a story of strength or weakness into the open. Flat lining can see bids or sell orders. The market trend is higher so the presumption is upside.

The market is waiting today for Wednesday, as the FOMC starts a 2-day meeting today. 'Experts' say there will be a December rate hike regardless of what the market thinks. I guess that is why they are 'experts.'

We are watching to see if any out of the blue hiccups hit the tape today as was the case early afternoon Monday when sell orders hit, the indices dropped, and NASDAQ actually flipped negative before a recovery. Whether these show up again and if so, at what frequency, gives insight as to any selling strength. We will see. The market has no problem weathering events such as Monday afternoon as long as they do not become the norm.


Housing Starts: -0.8% vs +1.7% expected. Down 2 months straight as a rise in single family could not offset a drop in multifamily housing starts.

Permits: +5.7% versus -0.8% expected. Multifamily jumped, single down. The mix of single versus multi continues to vex experts.

Of course, the storms will 'fix' everything as there must be rebuilding and replacing. Fix those broken windows and all will be well with the market.


Exports, August: +0.6% thanks to increases in industrial supplies.

Imports: +0.6% thanks to rising oil prices. Gee, thanks.


Toys 'r' Us: Files Chapter 11 BR, largest retail BR in US history.


Upgrades: GPS, KORS; CVS; WAG

Downgrades: NKE


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.222% vs 2.2348%

EUR/USD: 1.1976 vs 1.19677

USD/JPY: 111.43 vs 111.56

Oil: 50.20, +0.29

Gold; 1312.00, +1.20


Futures flat-lined all morning and we will have to see if the sluggish pre-FOMC action finds more bids. Typically the market has risen into the FOMC decision so this afternoon could see bids stronger. Again, however, watching to see if any selling air pockets show up again.

Letting positions continue to work of course and looking at choice big names such as NFLX, BABA, and some very good looking biotechs/drugs. There is also energy to consider as the patterns look enticing -- again.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Monday, September 18, 2017

Market Alert - The Close

Futures tried the upside versus the downside, and the result was the same: DJ30 posted a new high. SP500 played footsie at the upper channel line, though it did put in another new high. NASDAQ went nowhere. RUTX and SP400 continued playing catchup to the rest of the indices, posting solid percentage gains yet again. So, whether futures start lower or futures start higher, the market moves higher. Today it just cut to the chase and moved higher.

SP500 3.64, 0.15%
NASDAQ 6.17, 0.10%
DJ30 63.01, 0.28%
SP400 0.47%
RUTX 0.65%
SOX 1.24%

VOLUME: NYSE -63%. NASDAQ -33%. NYSE trade fell back but held the same above average levels from last week prior to expiration. NASDAQ trade fell as well, but managed to hold above average as well.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.3:1, NASDAQ 1.5:1. RUTX up 2/3%, SP400 almost 0.5% but breadth was weak. Still not a very powerful move. Still doesn't seem to matter.

But, the move higher was not all that smooth. Breadth is lousy despite very solid gains on the small and midcaps. There was also an early afternoon hiccup that saw stocks plunge lower, at least relative to the daily move, and sent NASDAQ negative intraday. All indices recovered and NASDAQ squeaked out a gain, but that kind of no news, out of the blue sharp selling shows some program selling hitting the market.

That has not happened for quite a while. It does not signal a market selloff is coming no matter what, but given the indices hitting new highs, the market's MO of selling back after new highs and some additional rallying, the return of 'what the heck was that?' selling -- in the middle of a 'routine' upside session -- is something you need to notice.

Perhaps it is just rotation. FAANG stocks outside of NFLX are weak. At the same time retailers remain solid along with autos, auto parts makers, heavy machinery -- storm recovery stocks -- continue showing good action and buying. Financial stocks continued improving ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Chips still strong. Biotechs and drugs. China stocks. Software is still solid. Rotation without dropping out a lot of sectors, though FAANG is struggling.

For now definitely good enough to let positions work and add incrementally. We took some NVDA gain as it gapped, rallied, but then started to backpedal in that early afternoon NASDAQ selling. Picked up some IDRA (biotech) and SQ (breakout move), and was ready to pick up some more NFLX. Yes, there are stocks we will still buy because they look great, can really fly when they move, and, despite the early afternoon jerk lower, the action remains good.

Have a great evening!

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Market Alert - To the Close

The stock indices are mostly higher but NASDAQ 100 is negative and NASDAQ had to fight back from negative. This despite semiconductors performing well overall, continuing their rally. Indeed the other large cap indices are adding to their higher highs, biotechs are solid as are other areas, but the action in NASDAQ is worrisome and thus we are not buying a lot of new positions.

The action in NASDAQ is perhaps somewhat a foreshadow of selling to come. Or perhaps it is just rotation out of the big names such as FAANG. We did close the FB position just as we closed GOOG last week because the action was not great. AMZN is trading poorly as well.

Otherwise the action does look good as it did last week so letting positions run though we did take some NVDA gain on its gap higher that started to struggle. For now, as noted, good enough to let positions run, not so wild about many new positions.

SP500 3.87, 0.15%
NASDAQ 7.61, 0.12%
DJ30 66.96, 0.30%
SP400 0.48%
RUTX 0.67%
SOX 1.29%

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +2.97; DJ +42.64; NADSAQ +7.75

World stocks are up and US futures are following (or is it the other way around?). US futures started quite high, rallied, but have backed off from the highs the past 3.5 hours.

A bit different from the low to high moves last week, but hardly a barn burner out of the open as it was the prior Monday with that big 'whew' gap and rally that broke the indices out and set them on the path to the new highs last week for SP500, DJ30, and another one by NASDAQ. SOX is knocking on the door of a new post-2008 high. RUTX, SP400 have good setups to move higher.

The news flow is rather light in terms of economics thus far with the big event supposedly the FOMC meeting this week. Wednesday is the announcement and also a Yellen presser. The main issue for this meeting is the balance sheet taper/reduction. Most believe December is the more likely timing point for that move given the hurricanes. Of course, there is always the simple Fed resistance to do anything to change its policy, tight or loose, until something happens.


M&A: Northrup to buy OA (rocket maker)


Analysts: NVDA upgraded, CAT upgraded, BRKS downgraded to hold


Bitcoin: China taking actions to totally restrict its trading in that country.


FB: More questions about how many ads to Russians, how much it turned over to prosecutor versus Congress (do you ever get the feeling Congress is just a doormat for some people while the rest of us are saddled with its mistakes, e.g. ACA?).


World News:
UN: Trump, Haley pay a visit this week, give speeches.

Hurricane Maria close on the path of Irma, Jose is expected to bring some stormy weather to East Coast.

NKorea: US holds mock bombing drills with B1-B and F-35 planes.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.213% vs 2.201%. Bonds off again as the pullback continues ahead of this week's FOMC meeting.

EUR/USD: 1.1961 vs 1.1943

USD/JPY: 111.41 vs 110.846. Making more upside against the yen as the rebound continues with some good strength.

Oil: 49.60, -0.29

Gold: 1315.60, -9.60


Futures holding gains, moving up some toward the open. Again, after the low to high so-so moves last week (outside of SOX), an upside open is something of a novelty. Raises the question whether the indices can actually hold an early move. Looking for SOX new high, NASDAQ to make its own all-time closing high, and for RUTX, SP400 to continue upside to join the rest.

That still means there are good stocks in buy position, and while this move is in the new high range and the algos can enter at any time, we will look at the really good setups.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Friday, September 15, 2017

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -3.17; DJ -2.48; NASDAQ -11.52

The financial stations and websites are talking about 'missile fatigue,' i.e. market non-reaction to North Korea firing a missile that could easily reach Guam. I don't know, but futures are this morning lower than where they were last night when the news hit.

Economic data in August was weak. Hurricane related? Hurricanes straddled the months so we will see. It has the bald-headed guy on CNBC confused. I think a lot of it is the storms throwing off the adjustments, but the economy, despite Trump-claimed resurgence, is still weaker because of the ACA, no tax change, and not enough regulatory relaxation.


Retail Sales, August: -0.2 vs +0.1 dxp vs 0.3 July (revised from 0.6)

Ex-auto: 0.2 vs 0.5 ex vs 0.4 July (from 0.5)

Control Group: -0.2 vs 0.2 exp

Online sales: -1.1%, the worst showing since 4/2014


Industrial Production, August: -0.9 vs 0.1 expected vs 0.4 prior (0.2)

Capacity utilization: 76.1 vs 76.8 exp vs 76.9 prior (76.7)


Empire PMI, Sep: 24.4 vs 20.0 exp vs 25.2 August


London subway 'bucket' bomb injures over a dozen. All released with minor injuries.


NKOREA: Sails missile over Japan. Russia says time to get tough against NK. Oh that is rich. Why not back off the gentle rhetoric toward NK? The leaders are a problem. Treat them as such.


Bitcoin: China shuts down all exchanges, Bitcoin fell 30%, but it has just jumped 15% off the low on a buy the dip.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.186% vs 2.186% 10 year

EUR/USD: 1.1971 vs 1.1918

USD/JPY: 110.70 vs 110.00

Oil: 49.76, -0.13

Gold: 1330.10, +7.99


Futures are trading at the bottom of the morning range, sporting relatively modest losses in the wake of North Korea. Was concerned the market might not recover off the selling last night, but it is more encouraging this morning. Again we will see if the bids return to pull a lower open higher. Of course the past sessions the closes were flat versus new solid breaks higher. With the weekend ahead, still skeptical the indices will really hit it upside, but we will take it if it comes.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Market Alert - Mid Session

A soft open again found buying but even with the almost straight upside the indices are still mixed. DJ30 at a new high and SOX is leading the upside with a 1% gain, stretching its breakout and showing more authority.

SP500 SP500 -0.89, -0.04%
NASDAQ -17.61, -0.27%; FAANG weak
DJ30 50.65, 0.23%
SP400 0.02%
RUTX -0.04%
SOX 0.96%

The news stories have remained the same. A lot of political bickering about just what happened last night and whether Trump sold out his base or is simply trying to make things happen given the congressional republicans have stepped all over themselves in their ineptitude and feckless attempts to accomplish anything. Some headlines say Trump got 'rolled,' etc., but it struck me how everyone in the US now literally sprints to conclusions without knowing facts. It is downright refreshing to see some in the media saying let's see what progress this new attempt at talking yields.

But, I digress.

A story about AMZN and a $2B tax fraud is not helping it, but even AMZN is starting to rebound after 3.5 hours of selling lower as the rest of the market continues to move upside.

So, once again the bids are returning. Will see how they hold up into the afternoon session.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -6.52; DJ -21.18; NASDAQ -26.38

Futures started where they sold down to afterhours last night, rallied, but then tumbled starting 8:00ET. A modest bounce the past half hour still finds NASDAQ well down to start Thursday.

The bipolar CNBC Cramer who was so gung ho after the Monday surge now says the market doesn't have any catalyst, that the news is just not much to add. Well, THAT has been the case all week as noted each morning.

CPI: 0.4% vs 0.3% exp vs 0.1% prior. +1.9% year/year

Core: 0.2% vs 0.2% exp vs 0.1% prior. +1.7% year/year

Energy jumped, new vehicles flat, used vehicles down hard. Shelter, playing into the core, rose 0.5%, the largest gain since 10/2005.

Real wages (inflation adjusted): -0.6%

Summary: Gasoline costs surge, housing surges, incomes fall. This as the government reports median incomes hit a record high. How did they do that? They CHANGED how they calculate incomes. If the facts don't fit, change the rules!


BOE: Does nothing with rates despite inflation Says it could hike in a few months. Sure. A lot can happen in a few months.


China: Retail data misses expectations by a couple of tenths.


NKorea: Japan says NK prepping for a missile launch. Japan was spot on the last test. NK says it will 'sink' Japan and reduce the US to 'ashes and darkness.' EMP threat there?


Daca/Taxes: Dems claimed a deal last night, using Schumer's standard ploy of running to the microphone first to try and set the narrative. White House, Trump say today no deal was made but they are close to an agreement.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.197% vs 2.19%

EUR/USD: 1.18861 vs 1.1874

USD/JPY: 110.54 vs 110.62. Fades some after the rebound surge.

Oil: 49.80, +0.50

Gold 1327.40, -0.60


Futures are on a bounce toward the open though still well below flat line. Will the market show another low to high move, this one with some more power? If it does, that shows continued strength in the rally as the market, despite Cramer's 'no catalyst, no news' claims, has had to chew on a lot this morning in terms of economic data, world data, geopolitical strife -- the usual.

We will see if the likes of AMZN, testing back this morning from the WED move, turn back up with new bids.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Market Alert - The Close

Two solid sessions upside then futures softened. A softer open, a pause after a run is typically not a big deal. It wasn't today. Stocks opened lower and immediately moved upside. It was not a straight run upside, but it was enough to flip all but SP400 positive by the close.

SP500 1.89, 0.08%
NASDAQ 5.91, 0.09%
DJ30 39.39, 0.18%
SP400 -0.16%
RUTX 0.24%
SOX 0.16%

VOLUME: NYSE +7%, NASDAQ +11%. Good to see volume advance back to above average as stocks tested lower early then recovered. Not a huge reversal, could be interpreted as churn, but the volume and price action go with the market's pattern, and that suggests upside.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.1:1, NASDAQ 1.2:1. Very pensive today, but flipped from negative to positive as the market recovered off the lows.

Not a great day of course, but it is very much in line with a market that surged higher off a test for two sessions, now pausing. Many leaders paused on the session, but other stocks picked up the slack. China stocks were still solid, some chip stocks jumped, and retailers and financials helped out again, retailers thanks to a story of JWN getting taken private. Picked up enough slack to keep things from tanking, and then when the market's leadership groups rebounded, the indices turned positive. Not a great day, but it worked.

The indices added some upside but nothing that shows a new strong surge that changes the market's MO of rallying to new highs, adding some more, then selling back. So, nothing has changed in terms of our market view: a rally to new highs, another week or so of upside, then the algorithms kick in and sell things back down to start the cycle again.

At the same time there is more than a bit of euphoric talk about how now, this time, the market is going to continue the move. Have our doubts. It can happen; of course it can. It hasn't shown it has changed yet.

The action in our positions is good enough to let the move continue. We did bank some gain on MVIS and XXII as they hit their targets, and after two weeks of upside SINA showed a doji; took some solid profit. Everything else we let work; they are not showing signs a selloff is imminent.

Did not buy any new positions. Many stocks did not do a lot, no surprise, and after the indices hit new highs and the pattern indicating there are not that many more upside sessions ahead, we did not want to move in. That said, we wish we picked up some more BABA as it broke higher again; of course the time to buy new was Monday when BABA broke higher off the 20 day EMA. At least we still have two positions on it now.

With futures lower afterhours it may be the market has another opportunity to prove the bids are stronger. If NKorea is the issue, it has caused some selling in the past. The question is whether this is the end of this leg, starting the pullback that takes back a lot of the move and resets for a new move higher. Thus, continue looking to take gain if it is there and if good moves start to stall.

Have a great evening!

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Market Alert - To the Close

Your basic 'pause' session where the indices made a break higher over a couple of sessions, following the early leaders. Now they take a break, reset, and we see if they push higher on this potentially last upside leg of this part of the rally.

Looking across our positions, most look good enough to let continue to work, i.e. not a lot of reversals. We did bank some SINA as it gapped to a doji after more than a week of solid upside. Also took some gain on MVIS, XXII, but letting half of those positions run as they look great. With the leadership still solid, we are not yet banking a lot of gain. Remember, expiration is Friday so keep that in mind on any September positions -- the only ones we have are HTHT options.

Not buying anything new today but watching SPY explode higher over the past few seconds. Not seeing anything coming across the news. I know Trump is meeting with the democrats and others on tax reform and will meet again tonight; perhaps some news there. That would of course be huge.

SP500 1.23, 0.05%
NASDAQ 4.42, 0.07%
DJ30 31.53, 0.15%
SP400 -0.16%
RUTX 0.23%
SOX 0.14%

Quote of the day: Speaker of the House Ryan says it is 'not in the nation's interest' to kick out dreamers. I think it should be asked another way: is it in the nation's interest NOT to kick out Ryan?

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: -3.73; DJ +2.14; NASDAQ -9.67

PPI, Aug: 0.2 vs 0.3 vs -0.1. Yr/yr 2.4% vs 1.9% prior

Core: 0.1 vs 0.2 vs -0.1. Yr/yr 1.9%

Gasoline +9.5%. Consumer loans +1.7% (highest since 11/2015)

Inflation up but below Fed's 'target.'


Taxes: Bloomberg interview with democrat Joe Manchin, W Virginia: Trump's willingness to work with democrats as shown in debt ceiling deal and in a meeting last night with both sides leaves the situation "very promising" for achieving what Manchin correctly styled as much-needed tax reform to make the US competitive, emphasizing the benefits to the middle class. Well, that is . . . very promising.


NKorea: Will accelerate its nuclear program in response to the UN sanctions. Well, that is a surprise.


Bitcoin: Jamie Dimon Tuesday said it was a fraud and would fire anyone trading it. This morning Mohamed El-Erian on CNBC stated that Bitcoin should be valued at half of its present value. Question: How the hell does that blow-hard El-Erian know the correct market value for Bitcoin? For anything? The MARKET sets the value, and these pontificating, self-aggrandizing, pompous, tin plated titmice are just unwelcome noise. Okay, a bit of a digression. Sorry about that.


Mortgage apps +10% as mortgage rates fall. Amazing how that works.


Jobs: TGT plans to hire 100K for holiday season. Expecting more traffic than the stores have shown this year? To be fair, TGT sales have rebounded some the past couple of months after tanking on the transgender bathroom thing. I have not been in a target in over two years; wonder what the bathrooms look like now?


M&A: JWN is rumored to be going private. Centene is buying a private insurer. Ho hum.


CNBC is calling Trump the $2T man, i.e. the market value added since he was elected President. Trump is exhorting Congress to work fast on tax reform. There is a whiff if climate change (hey, REAL climate change) in DC with the Debt ceiling deal and the communications with both sides. This could get done. THAT leads to getting healthcare done as well.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.169% vs 2.167% 10 year.

EUR/USD: 1.1968 vs 1.19706

USD/JPY: 110.14 -- holding flat after the bounce

Oil: 48.67, +0.44

Gold: 1337.00, +4.30


Futures gapped lower in the week hours and has range-traded since, now at the bottom of the range for the morning. Definitely a lower open and of COURSE that has several crowing about how the rally is over. That is of course a possibility and with NASDAQ, DJ30, SOX, RUTX, SP400 at prior price highs you must watch this.

That said, Monday was a big breakout, Tuesday continued the move. A soft open after that kind of move is not tragedy as often a soft open gives the bids a chance to come back in. Will watch to see of the softness holds in the range and if the bids do come in, we let positions work.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Market Alert - CORRECTION: SYN alert

This was sent in error. It is trying to bounce off the 10 day and will see if it does.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +3.89; DJ +57.63; NASDAQ +16.73

Futures modestly higher, rallying early session but the past 1.5 hours sliding some toward the open. Trying to continue the Monday momentum but understandably a bit slower after such a rush higher, a rush some are saying was a once in a decade move. Hmmm.

Not a lot of hard economic news this morning.

Mnuchin: Talking with the Alpha people or whatever that is. Nothing new there.

North Korea: Promises "greatest possible pain" US has ever experienced. Sure.

OPEC: Production falls for the first time since March. Wow those cuts are finally taking hold, huh?

Sun: Eruption could cause magnetic interference here on planet earth today.

Online ads: RH says 98% of its revenue online comes from 22 of the 3200 words it buys. Those words? The name of the company and 21 derivations of misspellings of that name.

OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.158% vs 2.134%

EUR/USD: 1.1936 vs 1.1955

USD/JPY: 109.92 vs 109.434

Oil: 47.88, -0.18

Gold 1330.00, -5.70

Stocks are starting back up after the 1.5 hour pre-market dip off the highs. Hey, maybe the bids will return and the rally continues. That would be great, driving our positions higher taken when things were not so clearly upside.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Monday, September 11, 2017

Market Alert - The Close

No sputtering Monday after the Friday inability to trigger higher ahead of the weekend. Worries North Korea would launch again, worries Irma might be very damaging, worries about what someone might say that might trigger someone else. When none of that happened stocks jumped early, held the move to the open, rallied higher into midday, and held the gains to the close. Upside all the way.

SP500 26.68, 1.08%
NASDAQ 72.07, 1.13%
SP500 259.58, 1.19%
SP400 1.16%
RUTX 1.10%
SOX 2.01%
NASDAQ 100 1.14%

VOLUME: NYSE -1%, NASDAQ +1%. NYSE trade hung in at average, NASDAQ rose to average. Wow, volume certainly was not commensurate with the price moves. Hmmm. What is new?

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 3.7:1, NASDAQ 2.6:1.

Clearly a big relief rush higher where all stocks were bought evenly, large cap and small cap.

Technically very good moves off the patterns. They were set up well technically on NASDAQ, SOX, SP500, RUTX, and they blew higher with gaps and rallies.

New highs: SP500 (closing). Oh, that was it. NASDAQ failed to reach a new high, intraday or closing. Who would have thought the sleeper would pull it off?

That is not bad, however. To us that simply means there is more time for the upside on this leg, possibly the last leg, of this particular recovery from the last round of selling. Remember, the pattern is new high, rally a bit more, then a selloff back to the trendline or other such support, repeat process. Therefore, that NASDAQ did not hit a new high and SP500 just touched one, there is more upside to come.

That said, there was a LOT of euphoria today about this move, about how the bull market had reasserted itself in impressive fashion. Yes, the price moves were impressive and there is also still room to run based on the market's habits in its rallies. Not much else changed, however. It may prove otherwise, but I doubt the MO has changed. Doesn't matter for us: we have great positions that we took early in the move that are working quite well, positions we took last week that are working quite well, and a couple of new positions today.

Why not more than a couple of new buys on this day? Because of its nature. A big gap upside on relief can be treacherous. Best to see how it tests tomorrow. Moreover, you have the market MO of rallies to higher highs then tests; not piling into new plays on this kind of gap at this stage in the rally makes sense until we see how the move holds. At least to us.

If some great buys remain and show themselves, so be it. We can pick some up, but we do so knowing that the nirvana feelings Monday likely shot up a lot of ammunition in the rally. We let positions run, be judicious with new positions that show great patterns and solid moves, enjoying the move, but not getting caught up in the 'new bull rush' euphoria. If it proves to be, man we are going to make some serious money because we already have great plays in great stocks making us money.

Have a great evening!

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +14.02; DJ30 +147.21; +48.63

9/11 anniversary. Do you remember where you were, what you were doing when it occurred? I do. I was writing the morning alert and saw the first images of the first burning tower. I remember talking with the crew and telling them the market would open lower but would likely recover; it was just a plane hitting a building--bad yes, but it happens. Then while watching, I saw the other plane hit. I told everyone the markets were not going to open and might not open for the rest of the week. My sons were tiny, we were up in the mountains in Telluride, we were safe, but I remember how heavy everyone's hearts were for days and days. We always discuss this with our children and those kids we have taken into our home to help them through rough spots in their lives -- it puts your troubles into perspective.

Stock futures surge as apparently all is well after no North Korea weekend tests or launches and a western jog by hurricane Irma reduced damage estimates by 1/3. All must be well.

The stock market indices tested Friday as they had all week. They were in position to spring and needed a trigger. They are springing this morning, gapping upside early on and holding the move all morning. This kind of gap and hold is not our favorite type as it is sometimes subject to selling. With the weeklong test setup in still good index patterns, the notion of a gap and reversal is much more removed.

Other than the storm, virtually no economic news.

Middle East: News just leaked of a secret meeting between the Saudi prince and Israel. Not so secret really.

Fed: Last week we reported on Dudley's comments. One that is noteworthy in its highlighting the backward theories the Fed pushes in order to justify its currency manipulation: Harvey and Irma will boost the economic "over the long run." No it won't. It is the broken window of economics analogy. If you have a perfectly good window then break it on purpose in order to employ a window repairman, have you created any lasting 'long run' benefit? No! You just went to status quo and indeed pulled resources from a productive area to something that was not needed. Did that ditch, then refill it with the same dirt. By Dudley's argument we would all be rich if we just paid people to dig ditches then refill them. No wonder the dollar is 97% lower under the Fed.

Just heard Cramer talking about climate deniers with respect to the two storms. Hold it, didn't CNBC JUST report that it was 11 years since a major storm hit on the US? Don't they come in cycles as in 2004 when Florida was hit by 4 storms but almost none since then? Call me a fool but looking at these two storms and then concluding they were caused by global warming (the first phrase used) is faulty logic. But, our society is founded upon faulty logic now as news reports tell you some of the facts then make fantastic leaps of illogic in extremely general conclusions. I saw a black cat last night walk across my path and stubbed my toe while watching the cat over my shoulder. Therefore black cats crossing your path obviously lead to foot injuries. This is the kind of logic you hear.

But, I digress. Happens when there is not a lot of news.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.111% vs 2.042%. Bonds sell off hard as the fears subside.

EUR/USD: 1.1983 vs 1.2037. Dollar recovers some from its hit.

USD/JPY: 108.77 vs 107.847. Recovering here a bit as well

Oil: 47.46, -0.02

Gold: 1337.40, -13.79


Stocks are going to gap sharply higher. A good setup might be hard to buy. We are looking at this as perhaps the last leg on this particular move before the cycle repeats, i.e. the indices top then fade to the bottom of the range. Thus we gladly let the positions we have and the ones we added last week run, but for new ones, the gap is tougher. If we get some good entries, i.e. gaps not too huge, we can pick up some positions. We will have to see how the gap holds/tests, and what kind of gaps our plays show on the open.



Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.

Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php