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Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +11.97; DJ +81.34; NASDAQ +19.15

The ECB issued a statement that the markets had misunderstood Mario Draghi. His statements were not hawkish, so don't worry. Apparently the markets are heeding the advice as Europe is up and the US is coming along with it.

There is no change in the news feed other than the ECB.

Healthcare: GS says meaningful reform is unlikely. Senator Rand Paul said on Fox Business that he would vote against the bill if it was not a repeal. The problem is that, as is ALWAYS the case and as we noted here way back in 2008, if the abomination that is the ACA was passed, this entitlement would never be repealed. We hoped it would, but entitlements are never repealed, just tinkered with, and we all pay for it until the system and/or country collapses. If it is not repealed there are a lot of small businesses that will go out of business and the US will continue to experience the low levels of business creation suffered the past 9 years.


Ford: Recalling 400K vehicles. That is a gut punch.


Earnings Beats: GIS; KBH


GS: Raises its S&P 500 target to 2400 from 2300.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.216% vs 2.20%. Continue the fade off the gap higher, with yields recovering some lost ground.

EUR/USD: 1.1329 vs 1.13409. Euro loses some ground post-ECB statements that market misread Draghi comments. Giving some back, not a lot.

USD/JPY: 112.05 vs 112.254. Dollar weaker after a nice surge.

Oil: 44.09, -0.15. Still holding in the range it recovered.

Gold: 1251.50, +4.60


Market is starting with a gap up and futures rallied higher into the open so we will see if there is staying power in the comeback attempt as NASDAQ tries another bounce off the 50 day MA.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Market Alert - Afternoon Session

Stocks were already sluggish, but about 20 minutes back reports started to circulate that the Senate was going to delay a vote on the Senate healthcare bill until after the July 4 break. When will they learn that if they are serious they should just repeal it in toto and have a replacement package, negotiated by all, ready to go. I know, wasting my breath. Work together? Congress? Oh, that is a good one.

SP500 -10.91, -0.45%
NADAQ -70.54, -1.13%
DJ30 -44.47, -0.21%
SP400 -0.40%
RUTX -0.37%
SOX -1.98%

As you can see, the NYSE indices remain relatively stronger and many materials and similar stocks are holding up decently.

Will see what kind of bounce generates off this selling and if it can sustain or remain weaker. If weaker, there are some downside entries. For now letting QRVO puts continue to work as that stock continues working lower through its target.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -1.93; DJ +3.45; NASDAQ -23.84

NYSE futures basically flat, NASDAQ is struggling again as those stocks continue to struggle from a lack of bids and some selling.

Case/Shiller, April: +5.5% less than expected. This data is old so it is not that market moving.

GOOG: Hit with a 2.4B euro fine for skewing search results to favor its own ads of items for sale. Shocking that GOOG would do that. What will we find out next, that FB, TWTR and CNN (cable) manipulate results, feeds, and stories?

Draghi: Has some optimistic comments regarding the EU economy, does not see bubbles. Stocks are WTH while the euro rallies.

Earnings beats: DRI, FDS


Fed: Several speakers today including Chairman Yellen. After Dudley's 'hike into a slowdown' comments, the market is a bit wary.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.179% vs 2.14% 10 year. Bonds selling back today after a Monday gap higher.

EUR/USD: 1.1284 vs 1.11834. Euro surges post-Draghi economic optimism comments.

USD/JPY: 111.90. Dollar still strong versus yen

Oil: 43.88, +0.50

Gold: 1249.70, +3.24


Futures sluggish, turning back down some heading toward the bell. NASDAQ and SOX simply do not appear to have bids supporting them enough to push higher. The question is whether they have enough to hold the line and continue consolidating.

NYSE stocks do have the bids to hold them in place and even push slightly higher. They will have to take the lead and thus the key for financials as well as small and midcaps.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Monday, June 26, 2017

Market Alert - The Close

Monday showed the possibility of a nice upside session along the lines of the prior Monday. Futures up and rising into the open. No major political stories hitting the wires, durable goods report was weak but that was nothing new as economic data has limped in recently.

Stocks did open higher, but it was not to be, at least in terms of a solid move. The NYSE indices closed higher but modestly so, while the bigger pre-market movers such as NASDAQ gapped higher only to reverse to a loss. NASDAQ looked ready to extend the Friday break upside from its lateral range. By the close, it was . . . back to the range.

SP500 0.77, 0.03%
NASDAQ -18.10, -0.29%
DJ30 14.79, 0.07%
SP400 0.39%
RUTX 0.13%
SOX -0.97%

VOLUME: NYSE -62%; NASDAQ -48%. Big volume drops after the Russell rebalance. NYSE trade fell below average so the upside gains mean little, as if the light gains didn't speak to that themselves. NASDAQ trade was still above average as NASDAQ and SOX gapped upside then the gains were rejected by an above average number of sellers. Not the best action for these indices trying to put together new upside moves.

The upside trends remain, good patterns remain either in pullbacks to support, new breakouts possible, or good moves continuing. Monday, however, simply did not see a lot of these stocks move. Not bad action at all, but as the session did not show much, these stocks did not show much either.

Thus, there are still good patterns out there even after the morning gains were tossed. On the other hand, the market is taking on a very summer-ish lethargy. Perhaps this past week where the indices stalled after a solid initial move is an outlier and the indices start rallying again. They certainly had their chance to do so with a solid upside open Monday, but they just did not take the ball and run with it.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Last Hour

A lot of going nowhere to start this week. Early it looked as if another solid price move was possible, but that faded into a sluggish session with a mixed market. Sluggish, stuck in the mud, pick your descriptive phrase.

SP500 2.63, 0.11%
NASDAQ -13.24, -0.21%
DJ30 32.73, 0.15%
SP400 0.50%
RUTX 0.30%
SOX -0.91%

The Supreme Court upheld the immigration EO for now, reversing the lower courts, but that is due back in court in October. By then who knows the status.

Ginsburg, Kennedy did not indicate they were retiring.

NASDAQ, SOX gapped upside but have flipped negative. NYSE indices sporting modest gains. Very much the pattern seen over the past two weeks and thus the new week brought no new impetus to break higher, at least after the open.

We picked up some WUBA and took some gain on NTES. Looking at CENX, XOMA as possible upside entries, SWKS possible downside. SSYS is not recovering from its downgrade and DDD is lower on that as well. May have to close SSYS. ON is struggling.

You don't want to get too negative in a slow market, but NASDAQ and SOX were pretty disappointing with the gap higher and then dump. Given the timing of the year, i.e. late June, the inability to hold bids suggests the buying interest is just not that strong.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +7.05; DJ +68.29; NASDAQ +37.30

Healthcare: CBO scoring comes out this afternoon. Over the weekend, several republicans (more than the original 4) voiced concerns of one feature or another. Let's face it: all are nervous about removing an entitlement even if it is an absurdly costly one that cannot be paid for and only produces more costs for those not benefitting from the entitlement. Oh, and the 'throw granny off the cliff' video has reappeared. One side must be worried a bill will pass in order to revert to that one.


Economic data remains poor. And the Fed seems to be fine with that:


Durables, May: -1.1% vs -0.6% exp vs -0.9% prior (from -0.7%.

Durables are still 5% lower than the 2007 peak even with stocks 55% over the 2077 peak (via SP500).

Ex-Transports: +0.1%. Better.

Non-defense ex-aircraft: -0.2%. This is business investment and it is still lousy.


Fed's Dudley: Today he says that weak economic data as is the case now gives impetus to continue the removal of accommodation. In other words, it is okay to continue tightening even if the economic data is lower, meaning he wants lower stock prices. This is scary: in 2000, Greenspan wanted lower stock prices and a slower economy and look what it got us--the collapse of techs.


Downgrades: SSYS (sell); GRUB (to equal weight)


Trump: Tweets Obama did nothing first, then changes it to Obama, because he expected Clinton to win, colluded or obstructed relating to Russian election interference.


Unilever: Threatens pulling big ad campaigns from Google, FB unless it can get accurate numbers on views, etc.


Supreme Court: Set to rule on travel ban. Also, will Justice Kennedy announce his retirement in this last week before its recess?


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.137% vs 2.14% 10 year. Bonds continue rallying

EUR/USD: 1.1212

USD/JPY: 111.41

Oil: 43.33, +0.32. Rebounding into the range after a more modest 2-day bounce last week. Still not much of a move higher

Gold: 1244.30, -12.10. Gold flash-crashed earlier, dropping $12 in a minute. It was blamed on a fat finger, but it has not recovered. So, how fat a finger was that?


Futures rallied with an opening gap, have added to those gains toward the bell. Last Monday saw a big price gap and rally though internals lagged. Spent most of the rest of the week testing with some upside Friday. Starting the same way this week. Hopefully the move will be more than one day this week, but even so, it is driving stocks higher.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Friday, June 23, 2017

Market Alert - BLUE ALERT

Stock announced results of a drug test early, market is not liking it, stock gapped below the 10 day EMA and is heading to the 20 day MA. Alert triggered but we are going to see if there is buying off this early drop.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +2.35; DJ -5.29; NASDAQ +0.38

Just the usual this morning: threat of war around the war, political games, some indications of a weaker economy.

Russell to be rebalanced today and that will pump volume. That is the big market event.

Earnings: all misses today
MISSES FL (TL); BBRY (TL); BBBY (TL, BL); SONC (TL)

Banks: Stress tests mostly good. WSJ has a bad mention for MS, GS as their cash levels were near the low end.

Sears: Closing 20 more stores to the 200 already announced.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.165% vs 2.148%. Bonds fall, yields rise, but recall bonds gapped higher to start the week.

EUR/USD: 1.1179

USD/JPY: 111.20. Dollar basically steady

Oil: 42.83, +0.09. Definitely no surge/reversal after breaking the bottom of the range.

Gold: 1257.80, +8.40.


Futures are hovering. They were lower, recovered, now flattish. Similar to the market of late. The indices have tested a bit, DJ30 3 days off its high as is SP500. Will NASDAQ and SOX find bids to continue their recovery, or just wander laterally? Futures suggest the latter but we will see if bids return.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Thursday, June 22, 2017

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV; SP +1.24; DJ +30.97; NASDAQ +10.90

The biggest market news is ORCL's nice beat on the top and bottom lines. Oracle up 9% pre-market.

Futures are on the rise into the bell, a good indication though they were on the rise Wednesday and the market split right after the bell rang.

Healthcare: GOP to release its new bill today, the one no one got to see, again. Democrats did it, GOP did it twice. No wonder nothing gets done.

M&A: SPLS is likely to go private. Qatar Air takes a 10% in American Airlines.

Bonds: Yield curve flattens even more on its way to inversion.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.146% vs 2.165% 10 year. Yield curve flattens more

EUR/USD: 1.1158 VS 1.11675

USD/JPY: 111.16

Oil: 42.71, +0.18. A weak bounce as Gartman turns bullish 'of' oil.

Gold: 1253.80, +8.00. Gold rebounds off support at the 200 day MA after 2+ weeks of fading the rally.


The same issues are out there in terms of bonds, gold and the economics, but the market still has some bids. New healthcare bill unveiled today, GOP victories in congressional races--the hope that the Trump agenda is still alive is keeping some bids in the market.




Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Market Alert - The Close

Stocks started higher as futures rallied all morning toward the bell. After the open the upside remained, but only for some of the market. Stocks split into two groups, the NYSE indices and the NASDAQ/SOX. The former sold to losses. The latter rallied to the close, recovering some of the Tuesday lost ground.

SP500 -1.42, -0.06%
NASDAQ 45.92, 0.74%
Dj30 -57.11, -0.27%
SP400 -0.60%
RUTX -0.26%
SOX 1.17%
NASDAQ 100 0.98%

VOLUME: NYSE +2%, NASDAQ -7%. Of course, NASDAQ trade is lower on the upside -- but, volume was still very strong as techs recovered. NYSE trade rose modestly on the downside, but trade was still below average.

A/D: NYSE -1.8:1, NASDAQ -1.1:1. Yes, a larger cap move upside on NASDAQ, quite obvious in that RUTX was lower and SP400 was off 0.60%

DJ30 was off for a second day, but after the nice rally it has the look it is testing that move, still easily over the 10 day EMA and fading on lighter volume.

SP500 shows a doji at the 10 day EMA, also on light, below average volume. It was disappointing it gave up the new high the day after that move, but the action into Wednesday keeps it in the trend higher. MACD remains lower but it has been low for awhile as SP500 has rallied higher.

NASDAQ recovered much that was lost Tuesday, holding over the 10 and 20 day EMA on the close. Still fighting to consolidate that drop to the 50 day MA's, moving back up on solid volume. It is working on it, but again, it is still an open question.

SOX showed the same action as NASDAQ, recouping much of the Tuesday loss, holding near support, still consolidating after the big move higher, the big drop, and modest rebound. Chips obviously performed better on the day, but are still a work in progress in this lateral move where SOX tries to consolidate for some more upside.

SP400 midcaps suffered another sharper downside session, falling to the 50 day EMA on the close. From new highs just over a week back to now testing a major support level after 2 sharp declines. Still trending, found support here in early July that led to a bounce. If the upside is to continue, this is where it will need to do so.

RUTX small caps declined as well but the drop was much less than SP400 and it also tried a move higher before it gave up. Not fantastic action, but still trending and still over support. As with SP400, RUTX will need to find some bids soon to keep the trend positive.


LEADERSHIP

Some leaders took hits such as manufacturing (e.g. CAT, CMI, TEX), some new groups emerged (biotechs, e.g. BLUE, IMGN already leaders, CELG, BIIB rallying), others tested (e.g. financial), and still others continued to rally (Chinese stocks, e.g. BABA, NTES, SINA).

Techs: Some upside moves given NASDAQ advanced, but some of the best moves were in software as CALD, DATA, RHT rallied well. ADBE gapped to a new high on its results. ORCL is doing well before and after its results. WDC remains strong.

Financial: Mostly some easy pullbacks to better set up, e.g. JPM, C, GS, but also some sharper declines by regional banks OZRK, TCBI. Watching those closely.

Materials continued to hold up well in their patterns: LPX, USCR, MAS.

Drugs/biotech: Strong session as money surged their way. BLUE, IMMU up nicely as leaders while others that have languished forever surged, e.g. CELG, BIIB, GILD.

China stocks: NTES, BABA up again as SINA breaks higher. YNDX still looks good to break upside. JD jumped back upside, perhaps ready to run again.

Chips: Of course they improved as SOX posted a gain. AMD continues an impressive move, gapping higher and rallying 10+%. MU posted a nice 3.8% move. AVGO up but still struggling. MRVL continues consolidating in a good pattern. SIMO in a nice 50 day MA test. ON and SMTC testing the 50 day as well. This group is still problematic with SWKS, SLAB just a couple that are struggling.

FAANG: FB moved up off the 10 day EMA, working toward a new high once more. AMZN modestly higher, also just below the prior all-time high. AAPL up but still below the 50 day MA's. NFLX rallied back to the 50 day MA's after over a week below them. GOOG shows the same action as AMZN, holding over the 10 day EMA and just below the prior all-time high.

We picked up a variety of positions, grabbing some BLUE (biotech), CALD (software), HOS (energy), SINA (China) and let other positions work. The chips still have to show some upside; most of our positions in that group held key support and they now need to bounce.

The large cap NYSE indices are testing nicely. SP400 is worrisome, RUTX not so much so, but both need to show upside again soon. NASDAQ and SOX are hardly out of the woods, holding on at the 50 day EMA, bouncing a couple of sessions, but now hard-pressed to keep it going. Again I have to make the call: Hello? Plunge protection team? Can you goose the upside again?

Have a great evening!

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +3.87; DJ +31.86; NASDAQ +13.44

Stock futures started markedly low very early but have steadily climbed into positive territory and continue moving higher into the bell. Like those trending futures pre-market versus the stagnant at one level mornings.

Not a lot of hard economic news and interestingly some of the political news may be helping.

Last night in elections touted as referendums on Trump and where unprecedented money was spent on House races (much of the Georgia money coming out of San Francisco), republicans won and won handily. As with the Texas governor election last time, there was a lot of reporting that Texas could go blue. Those reports were horribly wrong, and indeed to day would be labeled 'fake news.' The reporting today is that Trump has lost his November luster, but the results show the republicans polled better in the recent elections than in November. The market may be reading that as hope for the tax reform, healthcare reform, regulation reform, infrastructure agenda.


Saudi Arabia: King removes existing crown prince and installs his son. It is said that will mean more confrontation with Iran.


US/Russia: Playing games with planes. After a US recon craft was buzzed by a Russian fighter Tuesday (within 5 feet), a NATO F-16 buzzed a plane carrying the Russian Defense Minister. It is all fun and games until someone gets hurt. Then wars start.


Analysts: Lots of upgrades and downgrades in the vacuum of real news.


Pound: BOE chief economist says he is leaning towards rate hikes in 2017. The pound is up.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.170% vs 2.156%. Bonds fade as yields rise following the Tuesday gap and rally to a higher rally high.

EUR/USD: 1.1148 vs 1.1346

USD/JPY: 111.53 vs 111.470

Oil: 43.72, +0.21

Gold 1244.20, +1.20


Some solids earnings from RHT, ADBE, Winnebago and others did not appear to help futures last night, perhaps they are today. The domestic political news is also helping futures.

Whatever the cause, futures continue rising into the open and it looks as if the buyers are returning after that Tuesday response to the Monday new highs.

RUTX, SP400 are key today along with NASDAQ and SOX. Can the former two rebound and hold their trends toward higher highs? Can the latter two continue their recoveries from that big selloff 2 Fridays back?


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Market Alert - To the Close

Stocks have been in the gutter all session, never showing upside life and indeed weakening rapidly into the close.

SP500 -16.07, -0.66%
NASDAQ -48.23, -0.77%
DJ30 -60.86, -0.28%
SP400 -1.06%
RUTX -1.00%
SOX -1.13%

FAANG is off but the action is the same with GOOG, AMZN, FB okay, NFLX AAPL not so great. Chips are giving back some of the ground recovered Monday. The same can be said for machinery, transports, financials -- you can go down the list for the most part. Don't like the action in the small and midcaps at all.

No real change in news. World tensions remain high as a Russian fighter buzzes a US recon aircraft. The ISIS main cleric is killed in the Mideast. Trump tweets China made a try to corral NKorea but failed -- leaving the question of what the US decides to do on its own.

A new healthcare bill is now said to be released Thursday as a working copy with a vote next week. Paul Ryan is to give a 'major speech' to a manufacturing group touting 'permanent tax reform.' Let us hope that means a flat tax -- at a reasonably low rate such as 11% -- or a consumption tax. The IRS and its due process suspending existence must go.

But, I digress.

We are watching several plays pull back so we are being patient to let them test and set up some entries. NFLX, QRVO are weak and we are looking at downside entries. As for existing positions, those on the bubble are getting a bit tedious but the patterns overall are still holding up.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -3.36; DJ +2.99; NASDAQ -5.97

A bit hung over after a solid Monday price advance as the futures trade modestly lower. A soft start in an uptrend is typically not a bad thing. That said, this market is somewhat insane.

Futures hit a low about a half hour back and are on the recovery heading toward the bell.

No hard economic data but today there are some stories.


Mnuchin: Tax reform will be done this year. okay, he is sticking with
that line.


Oil: Testing the key support level at 43 with a sharp drop in oil a couple of hours ago. That drop took stock futures down with it.


China: Bond yield curve inversion at a record inversion. As a refresher, when the bond curve inverts (short term yields higher than longer term) that signals economic weakness.


Russia: No, not a Trump story. Word is then Secretary of State Clinton ordered the transfer of uranium to Russia on the tarmac of an airport 'near the plane.' Bizarro world.


BOE: Not time to raise rates. I suppose with Brexit and the government turmoil that makes some sense.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.181% vs 2.191% 10 year. Bonds holding the gains, adding to them.

EUR/USD: 1.11521 vs 1.11419. Euro edges higher again

USD/JPY: 111.49 vs 111.729. Dollar slips again after a modest bump up.

Oil: 43.06, -1.14. Testing key support in its range. Some are saying it goes to the high 30's. Watch, however, the bottom of the range and a possible false breakdown.

Gold: 1247.10, +0.40


Futures remain off though DJ30 futures are now just positive. Oil effect is wearing off some and we will see if those stocks in very good position continue to make the breaks higher and provide leadership for the market.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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