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Friday, November 24, 2017

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +7.00; DJ +41.00; NASDAQ +9.00

US futures up all morning, holding the same back and forth range for the past 2 hours. Modest gains ahead on Black Friday. In these times that seems to be a provocative name. Perhaps we will call it Profit Friday.

China sold off as its financial problems continue to manifest as corporate debt continues selling off, but Europe did not worry about it and rallied. US futures are seemingly immune as well.

China has lower import tariffs on 187 shorter supply items in the country. Perhaps the Trump visit effect; China never does anything immediately after deals are made -- it would lose face as it would appear it was reacting to the meetings. So it waits a couple of weeks, announces changes, and we are all supposed to say 'well what do you know?' when we all know the cause and effect.


AMZN: Workers at Italy's largest fulfillment center are on strike for Black Friday and 6 sites in Germany are said to be suffering the same issue over wages, work hours. They are learning Amazon is VERY competitive and actually expects workers to work. AMZN is up 6 clicks pre-market.


AVGO said to increase its offer for QCOM to $70, but others report QCOM wants $80/share. Interestingly, AVGO is up 3 clicks, QCOM flat pre-market.


Sales: Thursday saw a 17% increase in online sales. AMZN is up, BTW. Also, actual store visits were very strong Thursday night. We were doing some more retail checks ourselves -- and buying some items -- and saw lots of activity in Best Buy. Phones, TV's, even PC's were active areas. Old Navy had 50% off. I still believe this will be the strongest retail season in years.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.335 vs 2.321 10 year. Bonds off a bit after rallying.

EUR/USD: 1.1895. Euro remain strong, European stocks up

USD/JPY: 111.37. Dollar still weaker against yen

Oil: 58.78, +0.76. Oil still on its breakout move, confounding those, including the CNBC bald-headed guy, who said it had topped in the 52's. Of course, as with the 2016 election, it was either 1) the Russians, or 2) Saudi Arabia and the prince's actions. Right, the Russians.

Gold: 1287.80, -4.29


Futures are decent but hardly blowout. That works. Around Thanksgiving we always want the market in an uptrend to avoid a selloff. December can be trickier for the market, but for now we anticipate letting positions run, particularly since many sectors are moving higher thanks to the resurgence of the small and midcaps. Again, if there are moves higher in stocks we like, we are interested. NFLX, ROKU, etc. We will see if they can hold early moves. Well, MOST will be early because the market closes at 1:00ET.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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