Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +1.55; DJ +26.76; +NADASQ +6.47

Shocking. Only one Trump bash headline on CNBC.COM and only one Clinton Bash headline on FoxBusiness.com in the top 10 stories. Maybe there is some real market news out there today.

It is Manufacturing data for the start of the week.
China PMI: 'Official' 49.9 vs 50.0 prior (lowest in 7 months). Caixin PMI 50.6 vs 48.6 prior (highest in 17 months). Take your pick.

Japan PMI: 49.3 vs 49.0 prior
India PMI: 51.8 vs 51.7 prior
Australia PMI: 56.4 vs 51.8 prior
EU PMI: 52.0 VS 51.9 prior
Germany: 53.6 VS 53.7
UK: 48.2 VS 49.1 prior

US ISM still to come at 10:00ET.

Europe stress tests: Banks pass but not much relief in those stock markets as it was not a crushing beat and you know they were going to pass to prop up confidence. But everyone knows they were going to fudge to inspire confidence. Ironic. The very acts taken to inspire confidence undermine confidence, yet all agree to pretend all is okay.


Fed: Dudley says you cannot count out a rate hike in 2016. Yes, and you still can't count out that Turkey coup being successful.

Kaplan: September is 'on the table' if the data supports a hike.

Cramer says if the data is better it will hike, if not it won't. The more accurate framing of the Fed's decision tree is if the data is better it MIGHT hike, if it is not, it won't hike.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 1.499% versus 1.46%. Bonds selling after the big Friday rally on the weak GDP number

EUR/USD: 1.1163 VS 1.1173

USD/JPY: 102.43 vs 102.045

Oil: 40.99, -0.61

Gold: 1355.70, -1.80


Olympic update: only 1 dead body found in the water for the outdoor water events.

Futures are at the session lows, trading in the same range for four hours. Not a surge of new money hitting the market to start August, the second month of Q3.

GS says to sell everything as the next 3 months will be downside. August is often not a good stock month. Seasonally it makes sense, but it also seasonally made sense to get out in May. For now there are still stocks and sectors that are leading, so if money is being put to work we follow. None of us individual investors will move the market; we follow those that do move the market. If the big money is still putting money to work in areas, we will move with that money.




Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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