Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for.
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NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/30/2016
CENX (Century Aluminum Co.--$7.59; +0.53; optionable): Aluminum
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cenx.html
After Hours: $7.59
EARNINGS: 10/27/2016
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CENX is setting up again, and now that earnings are out CENX presents real possibilities. Hit a higher recovery high in late April and has since tested, holding the 200 day SMA with a double bottom. Rallied to mid-July, faded into earnings, but held the 50 day SMA. A nice break upside Friday on the strongest volume in three months. Excellent setup to move higher and metals are still acting very well. Nice turn off the low, good pattern formed after that initial move. Ready to enter as CENX continues the move upside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/plays/cenx/cenx.mp4
Volume: 4.225M Avg Volume: 2.007M
BUY POINT: $7.64 Volume=2.5M Target=$9.24 Stop=$7.11
POSITION: CENX DEC 16 2016 8.00 C - (45 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/30/2016
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill--$423.99; -6.56; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmg.html
After Hours: $424.65
EARNINGS: 10/18/2016
STATUS: Things are just about right for CMG. A market darling gone bad, at first sold, then reviled as it had a hard time getting a handle on its food poisoning cases. Perhaps time has done its job. Sold to a new low in January. That led to a bounce to March but it didn't take. CMG worked slowly lower into mid-June, putting in a lower low. As it did MACD held the prior levels; not the strongest indication of a momentum turn, but it shows strengthening. A slow move higher into late July, then two Fridays back a strong break through the 50 day MA's. Last week a test of the move, fading slowly back to the 50 day MA's on very low, below average volume. A big double bottom with the lows in January and June/July. Nice initial break off the second low, nice test. On a break higher that holds the move we want to play CMG for a run back up to some resistance at 470. That returns 60+% on the options.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/plays/cmg/cmg.mp4
Volume: 783.723K Avg Volume: 1.102M
BUY POINT: $431.12 Volume=1.4M Target=$469.94 Stop=$418.46
POSITION: CMG DEC 16 2016 430.00 C - (51 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/30/2016
LHO (Lasalle Hotel Properties--$27.55; +0.28; optionable): Motel/Hotel REIT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lho.html
After Hours: $27.55
EARNINGS: 10/20/2016
STATUS: The REIT's are producing upside, reversing downside trends. LHO made the turn in July after a four month consolidation of the initial move from January off the downtrend low. Strong move through last Monday, showing really big volume on the move. That was followed by a test last week to the 10 day EMA on lighter, below average volume. Nice strong surge higher that broke the downtrend, and this weeklong flag pattern is the first test, setting up for the next move upside. Started upside Friday but not a lot of volume on that move. Still, some very strong volume on the initial move so we are looking to move in as it continues upside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/plays/lho/lho.mp4
Volume: 1.482M Avg Volume: 1.698M
BUY POINT: $27.74 Volume=2M Target=$31.99 Stop=$26.32
POSITION: LHO DEC 16 2016 25.00 C - (52 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/30/2016
MMM (3-M Company--$178.36; +0.38; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
After Hours: $178.36
EARNINGS: 10/20/2016
STATUS: Flag. MMM rallied to a higher high in mid-July in a solid four week move off the 50 day EMA. After a good run from January to April MMM consolidated mid-April to late June. Then the new break upside. This is the first test of that move, coming back to the 20 day EMA and the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Landed at that retracement Tuesday and held in a tight range. MMM has made it through earnings and used them to test the move. Held where it should, and if it continues higher from here that shows the move still has plenty of momentum. On a good break higher through the 10 day EMA and buy point, we move in for a run to the 127% Fibonacci extension and a nice 100%ish gain on the call options.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/plays/mmm/mmm.mp4
Volume: 1.622M Avg Volume: 1.936M
BUY POINT: $178.94 Volume=2.8M Target=$186.76 Stop=$176.34
POSITION: MMM OCT 21 2016 180.00 C - (47 delta)
Play Date: 07/30/2016
MU (Micron Technology--$13.74; -0.07; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mu.html
After Hours: $13.78
EARNINGS: 09/29/2016
STATUS: Flag. MU gapped to a higher recovery high last Monday, continuing an 11 week move off of a January and May double bottom. That double bottom led to a strong break upside into early June, reversing an 18 month downtrend. After the rally to early June MU turned quite volatile, but it did hold the move as it worked into late July. Then the gap higher last Monday took it out of that volatility. This test to the 10 day EMA and the top of the prior range sets it in position to continue its revival. On a solid break higher that holds the move, showing some better volume along the way, and we are in to play the next leg of the recovery.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/plays/mu/mu.mp4
Volume: 21.793M Avg Volume: 29.717M
BUY POINT: $14.03 Volume=35M Target=$16.72 Stop=$13.18
POSITION: MU OCT 21 2016 13.00 C - (64 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 07/30/2016
SAM (Boston Beer--$182.88; +2.71; optionable): Samuel Adams beer, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sam.html
After Hours: $182.88
EARNINGS: 10/27/2016
STATUS: Trend reversal. SAM surged two Fridays back, really putting some muscle in a move off the May lower trend low. In the surge SAM gapped higher, moving through the April gap lower in something of an island reversal move. The surge took SAM to the down trendline formed off of the January 2015 and October 2015 highs. SAM tested last week, fading to the 10 day EMA and working laterally. It looks as if SAM is putting in a higher low in the downtrend, and we are watching for a strong move higher to play a break higher that is going to take out the trendline. To that end we are looking for a new upside move that takes out the 200 day SMA (184.84) and holds it on strong volume. That is our entry signal. A move to the initial target lands an 85%ish gain on the call options as well as a solid gain on the stock.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/plays/sam/sam.mp4
Volume: 241.757K Avg Volume: 170.871K
BUY POINT: $184.96 Volume=265K Target=$220.55 Stop=$176.89
POSITION: SAM DEC 16 2016 185.00 C - (36 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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