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Sunday, January 20, 2019

China: reminiscent of Reagan/Gorbachev nuclear negotiations?

Trade: China is offering purchases of $1T in US goods as a trade deal enhancer. China is at a point it has to deal. 1T yuan in liquidity injected into its financial markets last week in a desperate effort to get its economy going again. Rates for shipping commodities into China plunging, indicating China is not importing nearly the same quantities. Tariffs crushing its economy. 

Now the key is what Trump does. This is very reminiscent of the Reagan/Gorbachev nuclear negotiations. Gorbachev knew his economy was imploding as the USSR could not keep up with the economic engine Reagan restarted and used to fund the US military. So, Gorbachev offered everything the US had said it wanted to that point. At that juncture, Reagan's belief was confirmed -- the US was winning the economically and thus militarily. He turned down Gorbachev's offer. Why give up the benefits of a winning hand? We all know the outcome.

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Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist 
InvestmentHouse.com 

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