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Monday, August 6, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -1.20; DJ -21.58; NASDAQ -3.49

After a mostly higher end to last week the stock indices are soft to start. Recall RUTX lost over 0.5% Friday so the rotation from growth is still an issue as stocks trade in the new week.

Rotation from growth to larger NYSE is the general theme, but NASDAQ large caps are putting up a bit of a fight. SOX remains quietly building. Interestingly, INTC was downgraded on a note that AMD was taking more of its business. We have a play ready for AMD and will see if this gives it the impetus to make the break higher and make it stick.


China: Of course you have to start the week with China. It is now making personal attacks on Trump as arrogant and deceitful. It is an old saying in negotiations that you know you have won when the other side's best argument devolves to a personal attack.

By the way, China's stock markets continue falling and of course the yuan continues lower as well.


Bonds: Jamie Dimon says get used to the idea of a 5% yield on the 10 year.


Fed: Bullard has several things to say. On trade, he notes other countries are protectionist and won't give up their tariffs. On bonds, he warns that the Fed must respect the bond market and what it is telling the Fed. Other than that, he sees nothing to change the Fed's actions for 2018.


Earnings beats: CAH

Misses: TSN (TL); HSBC (TL)


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.947% vs 2.95%

EUR/USD: 1.545 vs 1.15683

USD/JPY: 111.457 vs 111.254

Oil: 69.14, +0.65

Gold: 1216.48, -6.799


Futures started lower, rallied to flat, faded again but not to morning lows. As noted, basically just a soft start, and those are not bad for uptrends. Remember, the indices are still in uptrends though the growth indices showed a lot of volatility that can signal trend changes. Then you have the TL misses in three FAANG stocks. Accordingly, that keeps you watching the rotation and whether those tech stocks such as software that rebounded late week can continue doing so or if they resume the slide. That is the watch today.
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Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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