Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +3.38; DJ +9.84; NASDAQ +17.10

Jobs missed the top line though a 32K loss in the toy/hobby space thanks to Toys-R-Us July bankruptcy closure and layoffs is the difference between the actual and expectations.

Revisions were also sold, +24K May, +35K June.

Non-Farm: 157K vs 190K exp vs 248K prior (from 213K)

Unemployment: 3.9 vs 3.9 vs 4.0 June

Wages: 0.3 vs 0.3 vs 0.2 June
Non-supervisory wages: 0.1%, +2.7% year/year

Participation: 62.9%, still slowly higher

U-6: 7.5%

Workweek: 34.5 vs 34.5 exp vs 34.6 June (from 34.5). Interesting. Perhaps another revision will occur for July.

Where the jobs are:

Manufacturing 37K

Professional/Business 51K

Hospitality/Leisure: 40K (bar tenders on the rise again)

Retail: 7K


Heard a CNBC anchor say there was no one to fill jobs so the numbers were lower. Oh, there ARE a lot of people to fill jobs with almost 95M people of working age not working. We still pay people not to work. When you can do nothing and collect just a bit less than you would working a low-skill job, why bother with the hassle of working? It is an economic truism that if you pay someone not to do something, the person won't do it. Until we stop making it easy for able bodied workers to not work and live off others, there will be a labor shortage. Hello? Mr. Tocqueville?


Trade: China says it will defend its national dignity and retaliate with 5% to 25% tariffs on $60B of US goods.

Wilbur Ross: The US has to make it more painful for China to continue under the current situation than reform.


Earnings beats: ATVI; SHAK; SYMC; GPRO; KHZ

Misses: TTWO (BL); AIG (TL, BL)


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.971% vs 2.986%. Bonds rally on a bit weaker jobs report. The yield curve gives the Fed 2 more hikes before issues.

EUR/USD: 1.1593 VS 1.1583

USD/JPY: 111.42 vs 111.62

Oil: 68.90, -0.06

Gold: 1222.90, +2.80


Futures are off their morning highs though are near the pre-Jobs levels other than DJ30. Stocks performed decently Thursday in the wake of tariff fears. Today they are just sluggish, before and after the Jobs data with a bit of an upside bias mixed in.

There were good upside breaks by NASDAQ, SP400 and even SP500 Thursday. Want to see those continue and still watching SOX as it works on its pattern.

______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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