Futures vs FV: SP +3.81; DJ +0.81; NASDAQ +31.77
The afterhours AAPL excitement was tempered when the White House proposed a possible increase in tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200B of Chinese imports. Futures have steadily recovered into the open. Even so, no great moves, but NASDAQ is riding AAPL and its coattails to a modest rebound.
ADP Jobs: 219K vs 175K vs 181K (from 177K). So far tariff 'wars' are not impacting jobs but note that multinational companies were indeed net losers of jobs in July.
Mortgage apps: -2.6% vs -0.2% prior versus -2.6% before that.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.005% vs 2.962%. First 3+% since 6/13/18
EUR/USD: 1.1687 vs 1.1689. Pretty stable all things considered
USD/JPY: 111.93 vs 111.86.
Oil: 67.73, -1.03
Gold: 1231.10, -2.50
FOMC rate announcement today and it is widely expected the Fed does nothing today but may give clues to just when it will shut down the hikes. With the economy still showing good life, despite the yield curve the Fed pays lip service to, it will continue its hiking bias. That keeps the Fed as the main obstacle to the market over the next year, not trade.
TUES saw NASDAQ hold the 50 day MA. AAPL along with its henchmen are going to bounce it off that level to open. Then we see if the reality is this was just a test or something more sinister over the longer term.
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Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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