Search This Blog

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +10.25; DJ +128.00; NASDAQ +34.00

Futures gapped higher and climbed steadily to 8:00ET. Eroding just a bit the past hour but not giving up much.

Trade issues are up front but don't forget FOMC minutes Thursday and its view on the trade issues and the flattening yield curve.

China: After the yuan bombed lower Monday afternoon, overnight the PBOC intervened as several Chinese monetary officials said China would not use its currency as a weapon in the trade wars. Hilarious as the yuan has dropped not unlike a stone the past three weeks, climaxed by the Monday plunge. China HAD to step in or face public ridicule and face loss over the obvious devaluation. China was allowed to join the WTO several years ago and one of the conditions is it would not manipulate its currency as communist countries always do. That stopped China's manipulation -- not.

Oil: Dollar surging still yet oil is surging still. That is what you get when you have some countries using the yuan to buy oil. China manipulates its currency lower, oil prices rise. But, it still should not impact oil in dollars. Very messy situation but oil continues higher. The issue is said to be outages in Canada and Libya. Okay, I can buy that a bit, but those did not cause the rise prior to today.

Oil crossed $75/bbl for the first time since 11/2014. Seeing $3+ gasoline even around Houston, one of the refinery capitols of the country.

Turkey: Inflation explodes, Lira plunges. Highest inflation rate in over 15 years. Another dictatorship plunges. It is amazing we are electing socialists and communists in the US, you hear Richard Branson saying the US should give away cash to 'equalize' the wealth disparity in the US when there are still current textbook examples of why socialism fails -- Venezuela, Turkey. Ah, but we do not TEACH this in school anymore and thus we will make the same mistakes we made before. And we will all pay for it.

Bonds: 2.869 vs 2.871

EUR/USD: 1.1649 VS 1.16388

USD/JPY: 110.69 VS 110.854

Oil: 74.83, +0.89. Crossed 75 in earlier trade

Gold: 1251.70, +10.00

Okay futures are up into the holiday. We bought some positions Monday and more will be presented today. Do you buy? We like the patterns we see but you also have trade issues still there and the FOMC minutes Thursday. The Fed is still huge and will get 'huger' for the market as time moves on. Expect the ebb and flow to continue but we do anticipate taking more positions even if they are not full to the wall, load them up buys.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

Alert Key


Customer Support:

No comments:

Post a Comment