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Friday, June 22, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +14.79; DJ +145.30; NASDAQ +25.01

Friday after over a week lower and the Dow is ready to bounce, other indices with it. A bit oversold, Friday, some short covering on the Dow. Perhaps buying in growth returns after a 1-day hiatus.

Not a lot of news compared to earlier in the week and perhaps that gives stocks a breather.

OPEC: Hiked production 700K bbl/day and oil prices rise. Why? Less of a hike than the 1M bbl/day discussed.


Stress tests: Banks pass as you would expect the headline to read regardless of issues. Why? Because times are good and they are supposed to be strong. Tell that to the yield curve.


Trade: Stories out that 'moderates' in the White House are pushing to restart talks with China. Of course. This is part of the negotiation process and the perception the WHouse wants to put out. Then Trump comes back as harsh. At least this time he is letting someone else play good cop -- he usually plays good cop and bad cop all himself!


Canada: Retail sales -1.2% vs 0.0% expected. Core sales -0.1% versus +0.5% expected. Ouch. CPI 2.2% vs 2.6% expected. So much for the global synchronized recovery. Canada is struggling right next to us while we expand. Bummer, eh?


RHT: Beat top and bottom but current guidance is not good. Will have to see the coattails for the other software companies.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds 2.922% vs 2.899%

EUR/USD: 1.1653 vs 1.1604. Euro continues to bounce

US/JPY: 110.07 vs 109.96. Dollar up here

Oil: 67.75, +2.21

Gold: 1270.00, -0.50


Futures are holding in at the session highs. Gapped upside very early on and have drifted higher toward the open. After a day off growth is back on and after 8 days down industrials will put in a modest bounce. Will a rotation come? Won't know that based upon today's actions as they are in response to a week of downside by large cap NYSE and a week of upside by growth.

We will see if anything is worth buying. HD has set up a nice new handle to a now larger cup with handle base, and if it moves higher we are comfortable in picking up that position. Others, we will see. Also, some are on the bubble, e.g. DATA, NPTN, GRUB -- they need to at least show they can bounce a bit with the market today to give them life into next week.


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