Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -13.67; DJ -142.98; NASDAQ -37.73

Futures bumping along the lows hit over the past hour. Tried the upside very early but at 7:00ET they fell negative in a rather steep move.

Reasons? The 'pin the tail on the reason for the slump today' is the Chinese/US trade issues. The conventional wisdom says the odds of a deal are 'waning' and thus sell stocks. Of course, the US trade JUST arrived in China; no negotiations yet. Still, the chances are waning. Why? Because they are now actually going to talk? The psychology of these analysts IS covered in college beginning psych courses. They should also have to take a course or at least read a book on negotiating and pre-negotiations. Oh well. Stocks are down TODAY, and just today, on the trade issues. Sure.


Jobless claims: Number of people (not sure if that includes just citizens, right?) receiving jobless benefits is the lowest since 1973 (1.76M).


Trade Deficit: First decline in 7 months, this after the prior month showed a record deficit. Hardly a trend change.


Productivity Q1 first: 0.7% vs 0.3% exp vs 0.3% prior (from 0.0). Not a bad number at all. BUT . . .

Unit labor costs rise: 2.7% vs 3.0% exp vs 2.1% prior (from 2.5%)

This as Real Compensation (inflation adjusted) is -0.1%, the second straight quarterly drop. Costs are up, wages are lower. The ACA is STILL having a wrecking ball effect on costs.


Earnings: TSLA's Musk told analysts basically to go away. Refreshing.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.94% vs 2.976%. Bonds bounce back up after a fade in the upside move WED.

EUR/USD: 1.1976 vs 1.198

USD/JPY: 109.27 vs 109.60

Oil: 67.65, -0.28

Gold: 1316.00, +10.40


Futures are ticking slightly off the lows toward the open. At least there is a softer open to buy off versus a stronger open that will be sold. Still watching AAPL to see how it is treated the day after. Also watching oil stocks to see if they now catch a bid in their patterns after the fluff upside in tech. Also watching how DJ30 reacts to the 200 day MA, SOX as well.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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