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Thursday, May 10, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +8.46; DJ +57.46; NASDAQ +23.04

Again futures are higher and again the market will show if it can hold a gain. WED it gave it up in many cases by midmorning, but the bids returned. Futures are sliding off session highs the past half hour, though still holding decent gains.

The 'what have you done for me lately?' rebound move will try to continue as tech big names join in with the small caps. There are some very good patterns in leadership groups, e.g. software, so the fuel is there to continue the recovery.

CPI: 0.2% vs 0.3% vs -0.1% prior. 2.5% year/year, highest since 2/2017

Core: 0.1 vs 0.2 vs 0.2. 2.1% year/year

Shelter +3.4% vs 3.3% prior. Rents 3.7% vs 3.6% prior. Other areas were lower in most categories including used cars (-1.6%), airfares.

BOE: Leaves rates steady given the weaker economic data. Does not look as if there will be rate hikes in the UK for the rest of 2018.

Israel/Syria: Heavy strikes occurred as the two flare into open war. Israel blames Iran for the attack on Israel and it went after sites in Syria.

Earnings beats: BKNG (but lowered current quarter guidance); ROKU; DUK; AMC

Misses: FOXA (BL)

Ebola is back: 21 cases, 17 deaths in Congo the past month. Here we go again?

Bonds: 2.968 vs 3.006 10 year. Bonds rally a bit after the Wed drop.

EUR/USD: 1.1927 VS 1.1849. Euro threw a doji WED and looked as if it was going to relief bounce a bit.

USD/JPY: 109.40 VS 109.76. Dollar is giving back some of the gains.

Oil: 71.55, +0.41

Gold: 1320.50, +7.50

Futures are hanging in, but the first half of the morning session is problematic as early rises are tested with the fulcrum typically at 11:00ET when European markets close.

As noted, there are still very good patterns in progress that could yield new breaks higher at any time. If they can show the breaks . . . you know the rest.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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