Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +12.50; DJ _117.58; NASDAQ +42.94

Futures move higher ahead of another open, again raising the question of sustainability. It is the end of the quarter today so a bit of position shuffling, some short covering ahead of a new quarter and potential new money could account for the upside.

The question is whether the sellers will take another shot. They will, but the question is today.

There is a new/old battle line right now, and that is the February lows for DJ30, SP500. Last Friday they found that level and have held over it since. Volatile, back and forth trade, but they held over that level. Now they are attempting to bounce to close out March. Everyone who trusts anything that happens today in the market stand on their head, right? 3-day weekend, nothing yet established in the market as to direction, leadership rattled and trying to find some footing.

There are some very interesting pullbacks in leaders such as MU, Z, but many need more work after sharp Tuesday drops and less than helpful Wednesday action.

Thus if DJ30, SP500 bounce today, do you buy into good patterns? In our book that makes logical sense given the test of the FEB lows, but it is still not an all clear indication. We may dabble in some partial positions but not that excited by moves today.


Personal Income, Feb: 0.4% vs 0.4 exp vs 0.4 Jan

Spending: 0.2 vs 0.2 vs 0.2

Real Spending: 0.0 vs -0.2 Jan. Recovered some, but that is the worst 2-month showing since the financial crisis.


Earnings beats: GME; PVH; STZ; PRGS; VRNT


AMZN: Trump railing about the company again (no state/local taxes, uses USPS as its delivery boy, puts thousands of small businesses out of business). I don't know, but when I order on AMZN I pay sales taxes, the goods are usually delivered via UPS/FedEx, and many small businesses sell on AMZN. Hmmm. But, Trump has it in his sights (versus campaign promises?) and that is bad for business. AMZN is down again today.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.768% vs 2.781%

EUR/USD: 1.2324 vs 1.2302

USD/JPY: 106.48 vs 106.81

Oil: 64.31, -0.09. Still struggling at the January high

Gold: 1326.60, -3.40


So, another session where the buyers and sellers will fight again with thus far the move lower slowing but the buyers have not taken the lead. They will try at the open, not sure it will last.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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