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Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -9.69; DJ -128.77; NASDAQ -26.98

Futures are backsliding and they are talked about in hushed tones as many are worried it means the Tuesday bounce was a dud. Perhaps it was, but as noted last night, we kind of expected a softer open, and that it could lead to a renewed upside relief bounce. Indeed, futures are well off the early morning lows and are bumping at the top of the range formed the past two hours. Thus, watching for this softer open to yield more upside. I know; most are worried, your gut says ugh, but this is often how these rebounds work.

Not much news in terms that will move the market. Steve Wynn resigns as CEO on sexual allegations. Ironic isn't it? A President does indeed have 'sexual relations' with an intern inside the White House, lies about, and no real consequences. A CEO does it and has to resign. I am not saying either was right or wrong, just looking at the outcomes as the political class bails itself out while the real world has to face the consequences. An interesting observation.

Budget: House passes a short term bill that the Senate won't go for. Senate majority and minority leaders say they are 'close' to a deal. Well la de da, another round of kicking the can. Oh well. A government shutdown now and then, indeed now and often, is not a bad thing. I think the government should shut down 6 months out of the year.

Yellen: Many are pointing the finger of VIX blame at her, frankly, incredibly irresponsible, sophomoric comments, literally walking out the door of Fed chairmanship, that asset prices in equities and real estate were 'high.' SHE played a massive role in those prices. SHE promoted them, did nothing to bring them back, and then leaves and says 'it's your problem.' Not so neutral, not so professional as everyone made her out to be. Given what we are finding out about the DOJ, FBI, her impetuosity is sadly not surprising.

Earnings beats: HUM, KORS

Misses: HAS (TL); DIS (TL)

Bonds: 2.783% vs 2.805%

EUR/USD: 1.2336 vs 1.2377

USD/JPY: 109.21 vs 109.58

Oil: 63.17, -0.22

Gold: 1325.70, -3.80

Futures continue trading near the top of the range of the past two hours. A lower open, starting to trend higher. Will see if the bids hold over to the open, and if so, the upside can return. We will look for some more entries for the upside relief move, but we are not loading the boat. You can make money during these times, but typically it is not a time for home runs, just solid hits as the market works through its basing process.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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