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Friday, February 16, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -3.85; DJ -32.37; NASDAQ -8.12

Futures started the morning higher but the past 1.5 hours have tailed from DJ +100 to flat. 5 upside sessions, expiration, 3-day weekend (President's Day). A lot to think about as the session opens.

Actually, flat is not bad, but the momentum for the morning is lower and we will see if bids return in the first half hour to hour.


Housing Starts, Jan: 9.7%, the highest since 10/16.
Single Family: 3.7%; Multi-family: 23.7%

Permits: 7.4%, highest since 6/2007
Single family: -1.7%, Multi: +26.5%

Despite claims about how strong single family is, the market is still apartments as home buying still lingers after the bust. Definitely improved, definitely working back, but high prices combined with the lingering fears from the bust keep many out of the market.


Import Prices ex-oil, Jan: 0.4 vs -0.1 prior. Highest in 6 years

Export prices ex-ag, Jan: 0.9 vs 0.1 (from 0.0)


Earnings beats: KO, CPB, DE, SJM, CBS, SHAK

Misses: HNZ (TB)


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.866% versus 2.904% 10 year. Bonds rebound some

EUR/USD: 1.2458 versus 1.2505. Dollar rebounds some as well

USD/JPY: 106.15 vs 106.16

Oil: 61.24, -0.10

Gold: 1356.80, +1.50


Futures continue to fade into the open. Would prefer a lower open with futures lower all morning as that gives something to build upon. As the open approaches, momentum is lower and it will take an effort by the buyers to turn it back up.

The market has risen 5 sessions and it is not surprising of the bids are a bit sluggish. We will see if they can return first hour into midmorning. Indeed, midmorning (11:00ET) could very well be a pivotal time for the market today that makes or breaks the session for the upside.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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