Futures vs FV: SP +5.78; DJ flat; NASDAQ +22.37
AXP buyback moratorium, IBM earnings are taking DJ30 down 50 points, pretty much all of the loss. Looking at SP, NASDAQ it is clearer that the morning is mushy. Futures opened and rallied into 6:30ET. then they rolled over, giving it all up. Toward the bell a bounce the past half hour. Basically noncommittal.
The main story covered by most news outlets is to be or not to be, i.e. to 'shut down' or not shut down the government. Of course, it is not a shutdown. No one will lose any necessary services. It is just a political game that we have to deal with.
The question is will the market be impacted? Yes, because the algos read the headlines and many of the people making decisions don't get the unimportance of a government shutdown. Thus the market moves back and forth in worry over whether enough grandstanding senators decide to fund or 'make a stand' for, as they see it, truth, justice, and the American way. Seriously?
It is also expiration. There can be volatility there as well. Indeed, HAVE WE NOT seen volatility this week? Yes. A little expiration volatility because of a stronger rally than expected? Yes.
The key for us is to keep watching SOX, the leaders such as FAANG (some already setting back up), and how other leaders test support. Some are doing so already as noted last night.
Thus, expecting some volatility, but right now, not a lot to push stocks with the overhang of the Senate voting on a government extension ahead of the weekend.
There are several news stories today but depending upon where you look you would entirely miss some. One that hit last night was a House Intel memo that discussed the collusion between the DOJ, FBI, FISA courts at the end of the last administration. It is called shocking and several conclude people will go to jail as a result. If you look at some news outlets, not a mention.
Others lead with the President's approval rating and rehash last week's news. Fascinating.
Most are discussing the potential government shutdown as if it is a major crisis. Any time the government shuts down, I am for it. The less they do the better. Instead, again depending upon where you look, it is some level of hell. Too many people depending upon the government, or at least believing they depend upon the government. And thus we play this oldest of games, or so it seems, about funding an overspending government with both sides jockeying for political points. It will never end as long as DC controls so much of what the rest of the country does.
Oh well, this is the government we have created, yet it is shocking how little people understand what a shutdown means. They are too ready to believe the horror stories.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.615% vs 2.618% 10 year. Still flirting with 6.2%, but that level is nothing special in itself.
EUR/USD: 1.2241 vs 1.2241. Wow, flat.
USD/JPY: 110.58 vs 111.05. Dollar weaker again
Oil: 63.04, -0.91
Gold: 1334.30, +7.10
Futures sprinting back up to morning highs as the bell approaches. Did someone say volatility for the day? Even so, NVDA is up pre-market and we will see if other leaders do the same.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
No comments:
Post a Comment