Futures vs FV: SP -1.61; DJ +1.35; NASDAQ -15.03
Bonds top 2.6% on the 10 year and perhaps that has a squelching effect on the stock rally. Or, after a strong move stocks are taking a breather.
Soft opens after good moves are not bad. It gives bids a time to recharge and return. So, the watch is whether bids do return. NASDAQ is down relatively more than the other large cap indices; some FAANG has not looked good.
Key: Watch how SOX reacts to that breakout to a new all-time high Wednesday. Key group for the market as I have said so many times over the past two years you probably glaze over at the words.
Philly Fed, Jan: 22.2, lower and missing expectations just as NY PMI. Lower employment, lower new orders, just like NY.
Housing Starts, Dec: -8.2%, biggest drop since 11/16. +2.4% for 2017.
Single family: -11.8. Multi: +1.4%
M&A: WWW buying LQ ('next to Denny's')
Shutdown: Supposedly more likelihood of a shutdown as Congress puts an unrealistic idea it is going to solve immigration, etc. by Friday.
China: GDP beats, retail sales plunge. Reports are that 'raises questions' about the veracity of the data. Ha ha ha! As if there ARE NOT questions about all Chinese data.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.611% vs 2.567%. Close to the 'magic' 6.2% level that some view as an equities killer.
EUR/USD: 1.2242 vs 1.2198
USD/JPY: 111.08 vs 111.25
Oil: 63.88, -0.09
Gold: 1330.70, -8.50
Okay, softer start, futures trying to rebound off the session lows. We will see if those bids return. Buyers and sellers are still fighting it out.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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