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Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Market Alert - FOMC Decision

As expected, the FOMC raised rates 25BP to a 1.25-1.50 target. In an 8-2 decision (Evans, Kashkari dissented) the FOMC noted economic conditions will warrant gradual increases in the FFR for the next three years, but the peak will be lower than in decades past due to changes in the economy. As it stands, the FOMC holds at 3 anticipated hikes in 2018.

Unemployment is expected at 3.9% in 2018 and 2019.

GDP to 2.5% in 2018, up 0.4% from prior forecasts

Inflation at 2%, noting that pressures have declined. There is that Greenspan conundrum popping up again as the yield curve remains flat despite hikes at the short end.

After the action bonds are rallying, the dollar is lower, both the opposite of what you would expect when there is tightening by the FOMC.

Stocks sold starting 11:50ET from the session peak to 1:30. Then they started a climb into the FOMC announcement, jumped on the news, and have recovered back to the prior session highs as chairman Yellen conducts her press conference.

Small caps are the strongest with the Dow the second strongest. Wow, both ends of the spectrum lead with the rest in the middle. Picked up one of those leaders, HON, and a smaller cap XNET. Getting some decent action in the likes of FB as it tries to come off its 50 day MA test.

SP500 7.43, 0.28%
DJ30 32.88, 0.48%
DJ30 144.56, 0.59%
SP400 0.32%
RUTX 0.77%
SOX 0.35%

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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