Futures vs FV: SP -3.17; DJ -2.48; NASDAQ -11.52
The financial stations and websites are talking about 'missile fatigue,' i.e. market non-reaction to North Korea firing a missile that could easily reach Guam. I don't know, but futures are this morning lower than where they were last night when the news hit.
Economic data in August was weak. Hurricane related? Hurricanes straddled the months so we will see. It has the bald-headed guy on CNBC confused. I think a lot of it is the storms throwing off the adjustments, but the economy, despite Trump-claimed resurgence, is still weaker because of the ACA, no tax change, and not enough regulatory relaxation.
Retail Sales, August: -0.2 vs +0.1 dxp vs 0.3 July (revised from 0.6)
Ex-auto: 0.2 vs 0.5 ex vs 0.4 July (from 0.5)
Control Group: -0.2 vs 0.2 exp
Online sales: -1.1%, the worst showing since 4/2014
Industrial Production, August: -0.9 vs 0.1 expected vs 0.4 prior (0.2)
Capacity utilization: 76.1 vs 76.8 exp vs 76.9 prior (76.7)
Empire PMI, Sep: 24.4 vs 20.0 exp vs 25.2 August
London subway 'bucket' bomb injures over a dozen. All released with minor injuries.
NKOREA: Sails missile over Japan. Russia says time to get tough against NK. Oh that is rich. Why not back off the gentle rhetoric toward NK? The leaders are a problem. Treat them as such.
Bitcoin: China shuts down all exchanges, Bitcoin fell 30%, but it has just jumped 15% off the low on a buy the dip.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.186% vs 2.186% 10 year
EUR/USD: 1.1971 vs 1.1918
USD/JPY: 110.70 vs 110.00
Oil: 49.76, -0.13
Gold: 1330.10, +7.99
Futures are trading at the bottom of the morning range, sporting relatively modest losses in the wake of North Korea. Was concerned the market might not recover off the selling last night, but it is more encouraging this morning. Again we will see if the bids return to pull a lower open higher. Of course the past sessions the closes were flat versus new solid breaks higher. With the weekend ahead, still skeptical the indices will really hit it upside, but we will take it if it comes.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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