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Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -8.27; DJ -47.34; NASDAQ -45.45

Futures continued to fall Tuesday after the close and opened a bit lower this morning, but that puts them down significantly, led by NASDAQ. A modest bounce over the past hour has futures off the lows, but you cannot call this a trend higher heading toward the open.

North Korea remains the worry though DIS earnings are not helping. After the President's 'fire and fury' comments regarding NKorea threats, NKorea promptly said it may strike Guam. All I can say is that if NK strikes Guam with a nuke, NK will likely be a burned cinder that China will gladly let South Korea have.

Secretary of State Tillerson helped out, saying there is no imminent threat. NKorea also released a Canadian prisoner. Movement.

All this said, reality is hard for the markets. Reports said 2 years ago NKorea was on the verge of a usable nuke yet nothing was done. Now it is verified and everyone pees themselves because nothing at all, at ALL, was done. You kind of feel like Bruce Willis in 'Armageddon' when he asks the NASA guy what the contingency plan was if the drill a hole in the asteroid and drop a nuke in it plan is no good, then finds out there is none.

Earnings beats: WWW; WEN; PCLN; TRIP; Z; Go Daddy

MISSES: ODP (has TB, i.e. a TL and BL miss); PLCE (TL); DIS (TL); HRZ (BL); MNST (BL); FOSL lowers its guidance to the level of fossils and FOSL may be a fossil before too long.

Productivity, Q2 preliminary: 0.1 v 0.5 exp vs 0.1 prior (from 0.0)
Prod year/year +1.2%

Unit Labor Costs, Q2: 0.6 vs 1.5 exp vs 5.4 prior (from 2.2)
Year/year: -0.2%

Annual productivity change for 2016 revision: -0.1% vs +0.2% originally reported. First annual productivity decline since 1982. What was that time? Just before the huge boom started thanks to tax reform, etc. Gee, if we could get tax reform, etc. going, perhaps we too could see a boom and see productivity move back up.

Bonds: 2.216% vs 2.262%

EUR/USD: 1.174 vs 1.1762

USD/JPY: 109.72 vs 110.09

Oil: 49.57, 0.47

Gold: 1280.80, 18.20

A lower open with a modest bounce toward the bell. Okay, will bids return? Will the PPT be ready to step in given the nature of the crisis?

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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