Futures vs FV: SP +5.21; DJ +48.29; NASDAQ +14.03
Futures are holding near morning highs, rallying ahead of the data, selling some after the reports were stronger, then recovering back to near highs as the open approaches. Good news was almost bad news, but not quite. After Dudley's statements of the data remaining the same -- and after 2 months of down data upside retail sales -- that made some rethink the no balance sheet reduction, 1 2017 hike statement.
Retail Sales, July: 0.6 vs 0.3 exp vs 0.3 prior (from -0.2%). +4.2% year/year.
May and June revised to positive from negative. Those revisions only exacerbate fears anyone may have the Fed might now see things firming. Good grief. Better is better is it not? Oh, not when you have double and triple think going on. But, the Fed is there, the PPT is there, so don't make your head hurt overthinking, right?
Ex-Auto: 0.5 vs 0.3 vs 0.1 (from -0.2)
Control Group: 0.6% vs 0.1 prior (from -0.1%)
Autos: +5.7% vs 1.2% June. Dept stores: 1.0% vs -1.3% June
Only down groups: Clothing -0.2; Electronics/Appliances -0.5%; Gas stations -0.4%
Empire PMI: 25.2 vs 13.0 exp vs 9.8 prior. 3 year high, back up to the top of the long term range
New orders 20.6 vs 13.6 prior
Prices paid: 31.0 from 21.3
Prices Received: 6.2 vs 11.0
Prices: Producer's margins are getting squeezed.
China: Threatens a trade war if the US 'Damages Trade ties.' Not sure what that means, but amorphous as China usually is.
Earnings beats: HD
Misses: DKS caught TB as a TL, BL miss; COH (TL); AAP (BL)
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.280% vs 2.224%. Bonds selling right back after eco data improves
EUR/USD: 1.1697 vs 1.17775. Dollar bouncing back
USD/JPY: 110.81. Recovering some ground versus yen
Oil: 47.22, -0.37. Oil continues its struggle after bumping 50.00
Gold: 1273.20, -17.20. Heading lower on stronger data after on the verge of breaking higher.
Futures are holding the moves to the upside as the market is set to continue the Monday shake off of last week's plunge. Easing rhetoric on North Korea is credited, but it is, as we have seen, just more of the same where a selloff is arrested and turned.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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