Futures vs FV: SP 3.25; DJ 13.00; NASDAQ 10.00
Futures are holding somewhat modest gains at the pre-market highs as stocks try a break higher, perhaps, after a 3-day lateral to lower test of near support, at least on NASDAQ, SP500, DJ30. Of course, futures looked good Wednesday and the market failed to hold the gains.
ADP: 235k vs 180k expected vs 174k prior (from 177K)
Headlines scream the US jobs market is 'rip-roaring'.
Services +205K, manufacturing +48K
Challenger job cuts: +71%, a 2 year high spike. retail, auto manufacturing lead the layoffs.
China PMI: 49.6, its first contraction in 11 months, prompting a few China following analysts to say China's economy has been trending lower even as CNBC and its bald guy say it is a world leader, presumably upside.
EU PMI: 57.0 as expected
US ISM yet to come today.
Fed: Powell says it is 'appropriate' to raise rates and lower the balance sheet . . . 'later this year.' Wow, what insight. At some point this year the Fed should raise rates and perhaps lower some of its massive balance sheet. Who would have thought? What possible good does his appearance and statements do for the Fed's agenda? For markets? For the average American? Perhaps these Fed people should . . . SHUT UP!
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.322 vs 2.191 10 year
Oil: 48.24, +0.02. Oil is flattish after a Wednesday fall as we are told 2 OPEC sources say OPEC could discuss deeper production cuts at its next meeting. Old news rehashed by those trying to prop up oil prices.
Gold: 1266.20, -9.40
The US ISM is out at 10:00ET along with construction spending.
The action to watch today is of course whether the indices can hold a move higher after 3 days of testing the new highs on NASDAQ, SP500, SOX. Pretty good 1-2-3 test of the 10 day EMA on those 3 indices, and sharp intraday rebounds on RUTX, SP400. If the momentum upside remains, the indices should be able to resume the upside move starting today.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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