Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +4.48; DJ -15.47; NASDAQ +13.63

Futures were flattish into the Jobs Report then jumped a few minutes after chewing on whether a stronger report was something it wanted. The Dow is sporting negative futures because of IBM and Warren Buffett selling a third of his shares and saying he does not value IBM as he did six years ago. And he sold just a third? And he is talking about it? It is unlike Buffett to speak about anything that would not benefit him so you have to ask if he sold the rest before his latest disclosure or is he trying to buy it back for cheap? I don't know, don't care; I don't own IBM.

Jobs: 211K vs 180K vs 79, (from 98K prior).

185K jobs per month this year.

Unemployment: 4.4% vs 4.6% expected vs 4.5% prior. Lowest since 5/2007.

The reason it is lower? Not a ton of jobs but the workforce fell again, with the participation rate falling and the out of workforce number rising to a 2017 high.

Participation: 62.9% versus 63.0% prior.

Out of workforce: 94.375M

Wages: 0.3% versus 0.1% prior (from 0.2%). Year/year fell to 2.5% from 2.7%. Disappointing.

Workweek: 34.4 versus 34.3 prior. That helps. A bit.

Healthcare 37K
Leisure/Hospitality: 55K
Profession/Business services: 39K
Food Services: 26K
Mining 9K
Manufacturing, construction, etc.: basically no change

Earnings beats: CI, MCO, CBS, SHAK, Z HLF


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.354% versus 2.350%. Bonds continue lower

EUR/USD: 1.0978 vs 1.0986

Oil: 45.38, -0.14. Watching for oil to hold around here in its trading range. Believe that oil is indeed in a trading range.

Gold: 1230.80, +2.20. Modest relief bounce.


Futures holding the post-jobs gains. Now we see if the jobs report actually acts as a catalyst. Not counting on it, but the indices, as noted EXTENSIVELY of late by us, are in good position to move higher. They have to show the move of course. And if they do show it today, do you trust it? We can make some buys but would not be surprised if Monday presents a bit of a test off any Friday move, providing more opportunity. Okay, that is getting out there in forecasting. If the move comes, we will pick up some positions.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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