Futures vs FV: SP +6.78; DJ +39.51; NASDAQ +22.76
Earnings are mostly good and helping a bounce. Saw the same thing Wednesday and that did not work out that well, a lot of it due to IBM but you cannot blame big blue for all the market's blues. Today it is VZ as it missed results and DJ30 will feel that some as well.
Beats: QCOM; AXP; DHI; DGX; KEY; EBAY (but weak guidance); URI
Misses: VZ (TL, BL); TRV (TL, BL)
Philly Fed, April: 22.0 vs 23.7 expected vs 32.8. From a surge not seen since 1984 (post-Reagan economic and tax policies) to dropping the most in a decade.
Fed: Powell says Dodd-Frank is being improperly applied to small and mid-sized banks, particularly the 'too big to fail' portions.
Fed's Kaplan: 3 rate hikes in 2017 "still a good baseline."
Oil: Tried to bounce on OPEC jawboning, rising 0.8% earlier, but that move has since dissipated. Saudi Arabia's endorsement of a production cut extension was less than full throated.
The other markets are moving in the other direction after rallying. This may give stocks more staying power today versus Wednesday's early rally then drop.
Bonds: 2.237% vs 2.21% 20 year. Bonds continue to fade some after good gains on a breakout.
EUR/USD: 1.0744 vs 1.0717
USD/JPY: 109.014 vs 108.974. Dollar bouncing back as well
Oil: 50.32, -0.12. OPEC tried to talk oil higher with SArabia saying a 'consensus' was building for extending the production cuts. Oil was slammed Wednesday and the early bounce attempt saw a 0.8% gain, but that dissipated.
Gold: 1282.40, -1.00. Pausing after a nice run.
Futures are holding gains made in the very early session. Not rallying to the open, just holding the gains. With stagnant but higher futures, we have to see how sellers react. Wednesday they took shots at the gains and were somewhat successful. They likely try again as they are a bit emboldened.
As noted, other markets are fading their recent moves, indicating all markets are backtracking the recent action. That may give stocks a bit more staying power versus Wednesday.
SP500, NASDAQ still have decent patterns, DJ30 is still holding the Fibonacci retracement. How they bounce, and hold, tells more about their pattern strength. SOX, RUTX, SP400 are still in the 'trying to hang on enough to recover' stage.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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