Futures vs FV: SP -2.52; DJ +19.03; NASDAQ -8.56
After a day full of news, even if some of it was faux news, this session is rather quiet. Oh there is news, but some of the most important is contingent news, i.e. it has not happened and no one knows what it will be exactly.
First, the Trump SOTU bump occurred, then it was business as usual in DC. Meaning: after a lofty, 'presidential' speech the ankle biters were at it immediately, and now the Sessions 'scandal' that is trying to distract from the SOTU stated goals.
Interesting and unprecedentedly bad for our country if true: Valerie Jarrett moves in with the Obamas to "lead the fight and strategy to topple Trump' according to The Daily Mail. The goal is to "force Trump's resignation or impeachment." Unbelievable and ironic. I recall President Obama and others mocking Putin because he never let go of power after stepping down as Russia's 'President' and still pulling the strings. Now a former President is actively attempting to overthrow the one that replaced him, if the reporting is accurate and that is no sure thing. Unprecedented in my knowledge and very bad for our republic.
More contingent news: the FED. Lots of Fed-speak today before it heads into its quiet time ahead of the March meeting. Yellen speaks this afternoon. Evans (Chicago); Lacker (Richmond, no vote); Powell (vote); Fischer (vote). Lots of chances to reiterate what we heard all week: a hike sooner than later is needed.
Commerce Secretary Ross: peso can recover after a 'sensible' NAFTA deal. Dollar lower, peso higher. Cause and effect. I hate weak dollar administrations.
India: December cash ban is crushing small and mid-sized businesses in the country as its Sales Manager Index plummets and sales plummet. Nice move. In order to control corruption and illicit use of money India sacrifices its businesses.
We are the EU: EU threatens fines for members not taking refugees. The US federal government dumps refugees in states without even telling them where. The EU is better than the US in that they threaten before just doing? I don't think any of the states would have ratified the Constitution if they knew the federal government could dump refugees on them without their sanction. As if THAT is the only thing going on today that would have kept them from ratifying it . . .
Earnings beats: ADSK posted a smaller loss.
Misses: BIG (TL), but it raised its dividend and announced a buy back, so buy, buy, buy. COST (TL)
SNAP: Analysts loathe it so expect it to go higher.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.49% vs 2.48% 10 year
EUR/USD: 1.05665 vs 1.05214
USD/JPY: 114.327 vs 114.169
Oil: 52.82, +0.21. The dance below 53-55 continues
Gold: 1228.80, -4.10
Futures sluggish but off the lows. DJ30 again is the leader as tech, small, midcaps still lag. That harkens back to the infrastructure trade still on, so despite business as usual in DC, at least the market, for now, believes infrastructure is on track in some form or another.
Sloppy start but after a low volume test Thursday that allows investors to put in new bids if they want.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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