Futures vs FV: SP +8.7; DJ +93.09; NASDAQ +3.1
Jobs are not the big news of the morning. The January report is receiving some gushingly good reviews by some, others are more sanguine. It's 227K jobs people; it is Sooooo mediocre. But, as I wrote years ago, we were going to 'dumb down' our standards for what is good and not good as the structural changes in our economy and jobs market thanks to regulation and taxes put governors on our economic output. Remember when 500K was truly a great number and 300K was okay? Do you? My how we have fallen.
More on that. That big news is of course Trump-related.
An EO will be issues removing the EO that created the Dodd-Frank fiduciary duty. Not part of the legislation so being rolled back. Bank stocks are breaking solidly higher as they now see there IS going to be relief under this President.
Trump meeting with CEO's again today. Uber's CEO is a wet noodle, Musk has the guts to meet with the guy who is going to eliminate his subsidies.
Earnings beats: V AMGN, CMG
Misses: AMZN (TL); HBI (TL, BL -- underwear maker caught with its shorts down?); GPRO (TL); CLX (TL); AN (TL, BL); HSY (TL); DECK (TL, BL); FEYE (TL).
Notice the trend? Again? Top line misses have returned in droves.
Jobs: 227K vs 235K exp vs 157K vs 156K
Unemployment: 4.8% vs 4.7% prior as some people re-enter, looking for work.
Wages: 0.1% vs 0.3% exp vs 0.2% Dec (from 0.4%). Weakest since August.
Year/year: 2.5%
Wages lower even though more states' minimum wage laws took effect. Very much need to watch this.
Workweek: 34.4 vs 34.3 vs 34.4 prior
Participation: 62.9% vs 62.7% as those out of workforce falls 736K, the biggest in the data series.
Out of workforce: 94.3M from 95.1M
Lots more on earnings later. Lots.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.433% vs 2.479%
EUR/USD: 1.0771 vs 1.0708
USD/JPY: 112.67 vs 112.903
Oil: 53.42, -0.12
Gold: 1219.00, -0.40
Futures were up and accelerated on the jobs report. Stocks will gap higher and bank stocks will be in the group. We like BAC long term; not sure if today is the day you want to enter. This push is because the Trump admin is delivering a substantive, measurable policy. If it becomes apparent congress will fall in line, could be big.
We will see how the gaps hold. Don't typically like Friday buys, but if the good patterns deliver good moves, okay.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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