Futures vs FV: SP -0.94; DJ -6.89; NADSAQ +4.56
Futures are nicely off the lows even if they are still negative ahead of the open. Ready to start in the range but showing some upside bias. Perhaps prepping for an inauguration move with some stocks starting earlier than others?
Housing Starts, December: +11.3%
Permits: -0.2%
Philly Fed, January: 23.6 vs 15.3 exp vs 19.7 prior (from 21.5). Seems as if Philly still feels the post-election economic excitement.
Jobless: 234K vs 252k exp vs 249K prior (from 247K). Doesn't mean anything because we are already paying 91.5M not to work as disability payments remain the largest payment segment as they have been since early on in the current Administration's rule.
ECB: Left rates and QE level of purchases unchanged.
MS CEO: 4% growth unlikely under Trump. One of those 'mark it down in your book' statements to see if it turns out.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.454% vs 2.422% 10 year
EUR/USD: 1.0617 vs 1.0657. Dollar a bit stronger as the ECB does nothing with its rates or QE buys.
USD/JPY: 114.53 vs 114.538
Oil: 51.57, +0.49
Gold: 1201.70, -10.40. Giving back some of the recent surge and the test of the break over the 50 day MA's is important.
Futures have recovered decently and now you start watching for perhaps an inauguration move that could be bolstered if Trump makes some dramatic executive order reversals on Friday. The investors and traders want to see a concrete signal Trump is going to do what he said OR what the investors/traders think he said. That could get the money back in, the wallet off the hip, the purse opened, etc. It is time to do it at some point around the inauguration.
We feel that may be the last rally of this upside move given the second 60+ sentiment read in 3 weeks, but nothing is locked in stone and timetables certainly are not in terms of the market. So, if there are good stocks making good moves, we typically participate because no one knows how strong a rally can be.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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