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Thursday, December 15, 2016

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +4.37; DJ +49.47; NASDAQ +7.03

The world bond market selloff accelerates along with currencies against the US dollar. The Fed action, inevitable as it is, still has an impact when theory becomes reality.

Middle Eastern nations are forced to raise their dollar pegs, threatening their economic prospects. China is also pressured by the driving US dollar as it pegs its currency there as well. China may bluster but it is not in great shape and knows it.


CPI, Nov: 0.2% vs 0.2% exp vs 0.4 prior. Year/year 1.7%

Core: 0.2% vs 0.2% vs 0.1% prior. Year/year 2.1%. 13 months over 2.0%

Housing costs: surge 3.6% year/year. Highest since 2007

Wages, Nov: +0.5% year/year, the slowest growth since July 2014


Philly Fed: 21.5 vs 9.0 vs 7.6 prior. Optimism surges.

NY PMI: 9.0 vs 3.0 vs 1.5 prior. Labor down but optimism jumps.


M&A: Kraft/Heinz looking at MDLZ


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.580% vs 2.52%. Hit 2.62% early morning. World bond market continues to sell and rates soar.

EUR/USD: 1.0428 VS 1.0506. Dollar continues its ballistic move.

USD/JPY: 117.80 vs 117.394. Dollar higher again but the big move was Wednesday afternoon.

Oil: 50.16, -0.88. Oil continues dropping after breaking resistance with a gap but then giving it up Wednesday. Iran supposedly already breaking its quota in the agreement, planning a 17% increase in January production.

Gold: 1132.20, -31.30. Gold getting bombed as inflation risk supposedly declining.

Futures are holding modest gains, the same gains held all morning. Investors are still sizing up just what the Fed action and more particularly Yellen's statements mean. Thus range-trading futures all morning in the direction of the recent trend, but no definite trend in the morning session except sideways.

We will see what kind of bids appear, or not, out of this higher but not that adamant open.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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