Futures vs FV: SP +2.29; DJ -1.77; NADSAQ flat
Futures were flat ahead of jobs report, sold a bit on the release, but then bounced after digesting the news. Since then, waffling toward the open.
Non-farm payrolls: 161K vs 175K exp vs 191K/156K
3-month gains: 176K/MO
Unemployment: 4.9% vs 4.9% vs 5.0% prior
Wages: 0.39% vs 0.3% vs 0.3% (from 0.2%)
Workweek: 34.4 vs 34.4 vs 34.4
Participation: 62.8% vs 62.9%. 425K LEFT the workforce
Employed: -43K
Full time jobs: -150K. That is a holy crap number.
Jobs: Prof/Biz 43K, Healthcare 41K, Govt 19K, Construction 11K (from 23K)
Losses: Manufacturing -9K; Mining -2K
Retail issues: SBUX in a slump, MNST addiction energy drinks down, restaurants reporting down traffic. All is well in the economy even if restaurants, one of the main hiring areas for the past few years, reduce hiring, right?
Oil: Prices fall as Saudi Arabia threatens to increase supply because Iran says it won't agree to cap its output. Gee, who could have seen that one coming?
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 1.819% vs 1.81% 10 year. Bonds rallied right after jobs report but then started to backtrack.
EUR/USD: 1.1083 vs 1.1108
USD/JPY: 103.21 vs 102.905
Oil: 44.36, -0.30
Gold: 1304.70, +1.40
Futures are holding some of the post-Jobs Report modest bounce heading toward the open. The past 3 sessions the pre-market has only been used as marking time, not as an indication of direction. Today, however, there is the jobs report to give it some kind of stability.
Thing is, just having stability won't provide the kind of upside oversold bounce we are looking for to make some upside plays work. Indeed, it might take another drop to fully test the 200 day MA's to make that work. Hey, if that happens we like that a lot as we want to bank some gain on DIA, DNKN, GLW, PH, etc.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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