Futures vs FV: SP +4.9; DJ +39.56; NASDAQ +13.03
Chinese data got the upside ball rolling, and though futures are off of their highs they are holding good enough gains. It doesn't hurt is the start of a new month; always a bit of a pop there.
China PMI: 51.2 vs 50.4 vs 50.4 prior
Services: 54.0 vs 53.7 prior
Best reads since August 2014
Fed: Starts 2-day meeting today. December is on at 78% expectations for a hike at that meeting. Nothing this week. It is an election after all.
Japan: No change in monetary policy but it reduced its inflation and growth expectations.
PMI: 51.4 VS 51.7 EXP VS 51.7 PRIOR
UK PMI: 54.3 vs 54.5 exp vs 55.5 prior
Jobs: Reuters cutting 2,000
Earnings beats: MOS
Misses: APC (TL, BL), PFE (BL), ADM (TL), COH (TL), THC (BL)
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 1.856% versus 1.83% 10 year
EUR/USD: 1.1024 VS 1.0964. Euro surging
USD/JPY: 104.87 vs 104.798
Oil: 47.08, +0.22
Gold: 1288.30, +15.20
First of the month, some decent economic data suggests recovery is at hand (again!) and so the market starts off feeling better despite a Trump lead in some national polls. Again, who knows on that, and I feel the market reflects that with trading ranges for the large caps, small and midcaps falling out some.
Again, the rebound in SP400, RUTX is instructive as is the move in NASDAQ. We will see if we get any solid buys. Yes, we will see.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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