Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -4.24; DJ 44.46; NASDAQ -6.24

Futures are stumbling around to start the week, keeping last week's tradition of no direction intact. SOX rallied to end the week on some good earnings so we will be watching that, but once again stocks are trying to find some footing.

I guess the billionaires and big brokerages and banks don't watch CNBC. Why? Because I just heard a gushing 'everything is great in the world' spiel worthy of the last 1990's. Companies are killing it, Europe is great, Brazil is on the verge of nirvana.

You would not know that looking at the Fed's new Facebook site. The comments left by visitors are priceless. Not for boot licking praise. No, these are very cutting and accurate comments (for the most part) and satire regrading the Fed's mandates and its track record in meeting them. Funny reading.

Reality is not so funny. After the FOMC minutes were viewed as dovish, the individual Fed members are talking again. Thus you get this patchwork of commentary that flips hike expectations back and forth the same way a tennis ball is hit back and forth in a long volley. Yes a hike is imminent, no a hike won't occur until 2018.

Fischer is out at Jackson Hole saying that it is wrong to view no hikes for 2016, September is possible, etc. Rabobank is so exasperated it penned an article stating the Fed likely won't hike in 2016 but it cannot admit it won't because it would be an admission that monetary policy is now ineffective. I think we are pretty much at that point in realization now as a group. But, that won't stop the dancing because Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday after skipping the event last year.

More Stimulus? The BOJ's Kuroda in another personal flip flop says that more stimulus for Japan's economy is likely in September. Could this be a foreshadowing of a US rate hike that month?

M&A: PFE buying MDVN (prostate cancer drug). ANCUF buying CST (gas station operator)


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 1.551% versus 1.58%. Seems Fisher's rate hike comments didn't hurt bonds pricing in no hikes.

EUR/USD: 1.1302 vs 1.1325

USD/JPY: 100.37 vs 100.21

Oil: 47.30, -1.22

Gold: 1342.10, -4.10


Futures are off the lows but not rallying into the open. A mushy open as the market indices remain near their highs but cannot find any reason to turn back upside just yet. With more Fed speak out and even more to come on Friday when Yellen talks there is plenty of time for speculation, and that is the playground of stock indecisiveness.

Again, watching the semiconductors and techs to see if they catch a bid. Drugs/Biotechs are a bit excited today thanks to some M&A activity, one of the reasons Tech/Chips are heated a bit. Will see if that acts as a floor on the early weakness.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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