Futures vs FV: SP -2.22; DJ -15.94; NASDAQ -6.10
Futures sluggish, trading in a very narrow range since the early morning. Earnings, economic data a bit better, but a mushy Fed helps stocks--though not much today.
Earnings: WMT, HRL, LB beat. CSCO gave disappointing guidance.
WMT beats, TGT misses. Not sure what the difference is though some posit it is groceries at WMT. That margin is, however, SO thin. Perhaps it keeps people in the store? WMT sells ammo, TGT does not. WMT enforces bathroom gender, TGT does not. TGT looked to be winning 5 years ago. Now it is not.
Philly Fed: 2.0 vs 0.5 exp vs -2.9 July. Strange as new orders plummet, employment hits a 7 year low, the workweek drops. The difference? Expectations surged from the 30's to upper 40's. Hope springs eternal. 'Wait until next year' is the Fed's battle cry and apparently people are willing to be optimistic.
Jobless: 262K vs 265K vs 266K prior. Virtually no change . . . for now.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 1.546% versus 1.55%
EUR/USD: 1.1331 vs 1.1281. Dollar falling again
USD/JPY: 100.39. After falling below 100 overnight on the Japan import/export plunge, dollar is back over 100
Oil: 47.30, +0.51. Continues impressive recovery
Gold: 1355.80, +7.00
Wednesday started higher but could not hold. It took a backside session rally to get back to positive/flat. A bit of a softer start is not a bad thing and we will see if this can bring in the bids.
To recap, SOX and NASDAQ held the 10 day EMA, looking fairly good. NFLX is trying to lead NASDAQ big names and FB, AMZN tested support and are in position to bounce. SP500, DJ30, RUTX held the 20 day EMA and rebounded decently. They have given themselves a chance to bounce in a negative environment. We will see if there is another bounce in this rally that pushes bulls to near 60.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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