Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -0.28; DJ -3.62; NASDAQ +2.0

European stocks are working very well upside but US futures are relatively flat though as on Wednesday, rising modestly toward the open.

Lots of pre-Jobs Report data.

ADP: 172K vs 152K expected vs 168K prior (from 173K). Okay, how accurate is this? It was supposed to emulate the BLS report after Zandi took over. So is the revision saying the BLS report will be revised higher? Lower? Who cares?

Jobless claims: 254K vs 268K exp vs 270K prior. 43 year low! And over 94M working aged people not working! Out of 317M total population. What a great jobs market.

Challenger layoffs: -14% mo/mo, +9% year/year. So laying off less from May but the bigger trend is still more layoffs. But jobless claims are at 43 year lows? Makes your head hurt.

M&A: DANOY buying WWAV in the food industry.

Australia: S&P downgrades to outlook negative from stable, putting the AAA rating in jeopardy.

China: Borrows a page from the US a year back, changing how it calculates GDP. The US added 3% out of thin air with its method. China was more staid, adding just 1.5% GDP growth with its new calculation.

UK Industrial Production: -0.5 vs -1.0 exp vs 2.1 prior
Germany Ind Prod: -1.3 vs -0.1 vs 0.5

Bonds: Giving back some of the recent gains to all-time highs, but the questions are still flying asking 'why?' Lots of blah, blah, blah, very reminiscent of Greenspan pondering his 'conundrum' where bond rates were falling despite attempts to push them higher. Greenspan did not believe bonds were telling the real story, blaming it on foreign buyers wanting the safety of the US. Ultimately, bonds were right; there was a crash.

Right now there are indeed a lot of people around the world wanting US treasuries. Same scenario. There is also the stimulus issue with the Fed keeping rates low. Still, bonds likely do not lie.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 1.403% versus 1.373%. Bonds fade some of the recent upside surge to all-time highs.

EUR/USD: 1.1086

USD/JPY: 101.84 vs 101.354. Hit the 100+ level on the low, recovered some lost ground.

Oil: 48.03, +0.60

Gold: 1360.70, -6.40


Stock futures are better into the open, turning modestly positive as the premarket improves. Nothing major, but Wednesday was not major but turned into a decent upside.

Jobs Report Friday, and it can likely only go higher after 38K. But will it be 'strong,' i.e. match expectations? Not sure how much it will impact unless it is really weak once more or, possibly, really strong (versus the fake strong moniker so often used).

There are some good upside stocks in good patterns. If they make the moves and can hang onto them, we can put some money to work then see how the jobs report impacts stocks for some possible downside if the reaction is negative.


Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm


Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php