Futures vs FV: SP -1.41; DJ -19.95; NASDAQ -3.55
Stock futures are off slightly as stocks pause after a 3-day recovery surge. Still a bit below the Prexit levels but for the large caps they are basically there as noted last night.
China: The manufacturing data causing some worry
PMI: 48.6 vs 49.1 vs 49.2
World PMI's:
India: 51.7 vs 50.7 prior
EU: 52.8 vs 52.6 prior
Germany: 54.5 vs 54.4 prior
UK: 52.1 vs 50.1 prior
Redemptions: C reports Monday was the largest redemption day it suffered in 10 years. Mutual funds lost $2.8B for the week ending Wednesday, making it 16 weeks straight of redemptions.
Autos: June sales
F: 6.4% vs 6.2%
Chrysler: 6.5% vs 6.7%
Friday Comedy: 2 Spanish union members have not shown up for work for 15 years. Still paid, just not showing up.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 1.419% vs 1.475% 10 year. Unreal rise in bonds around the world as US ten year moves to all-time high. More stimulus promised equals lower interest rates. Maybe a bit of fear there as well?
EUR/USD: 1.1139 vs 1.1099
USD/JPY: 102.63 vs 102.26. Dollar bumping higher.
Oil: 48.12, -0.21
Gold: 1338.20, +17.60. Gold surging, again on the stimulus promises.
Futures are sluggish but nothing major. Tired after three upside days. The promise of stimulus is supporting stock indices around the world, but even so, it is not straight up all the time.
Start of new quarter but it is also Friday ahead of a 3-day weekend. Thus new money effect may be delayed to next week after the Independence Day holiday.
Still plenty of good upside patterns to partake in, but would like to see a bit of retrenchment and then move in. Again, bonds are insane in the rally and that remains a worry even as the indices move back into the Prexit range. Stimulus on the one hand props up prices, but bonds, gold, currencies are all traditional harbingers of issues for stocks. And, I am not going to say it's different this time.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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