It was the session after a session of gains Friday, and given the recent market action, that meant a down session for stocks. Not a slam session where stocks are spanked hard. Just a lack of a lot of interest as stocks started a bit lower, drifted lower but then put in a slow crawl upside to the close.
SP500 -6.55, -0.30%
NASDAQ -2.53, -0.05%
DJ30 -77.79, -0.42%
SP400 -0.36%
RUTX -0.25%
SOX 0.55%
VOLUME: NYSE +3%, NASDAQ +8%. Of course some more upside volume on a down day. Modest losses, but suggesting some churn (higher volume turnover). Suggesting. NYSE trade levels are still very low. NASDAQ is a bit higher with trade approaching average Monday after Thursday saw above average selling/churn. Perhaps some cold feet ahead of the NASDAQ big name earnings reports later this week.
A/D: NYSE -1.7:1. NASDAQ -1.4:1. As you would expect given the slow action on the indices.
A lack of interest, however, is one way good consolidations form. The frenzied move slows down, stocks start to slide laterally, perhaps a bit of worry sets in they are not moving higher -- yet, no one is selling either. If the conditions that led to the move higher remain, all things equal, this kind of consolidation works to let things cool but continues the good patterns. Kind of the 'wear them out' method of getting rid of the weaker holders until no one is left but those wanting to hold stocks. Then something happens to trigger the next move and boom, they are up again.
Another way consolidations form is the 'scare them out' method where volatility and sharp back and forth moves rattle investors to the point they flee, flee for their brokerage accounts' lives. Once they are going and no one is left to sell, the next catalyst comes along and, boom.
The next catalyst is coming along, the question is which one is it and what kind of move will it catalyze. Earnings are a definite possibility with AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG this week. Central banks are another with the next FOMC rate decision on Wednesday afternoon and the BOJ concluding its monetary policy meeting Friday. Both are the kind of heavyweights that can make or break moves.
The stock indices are definitely setting up for some catalyst given the lateral moves in the SP400 and RUTX, now being joined by SP500, DJ30, and NASDAQ. SOX? Well, it continues in its own world, gapping to a modestly higher high after a modest 1.5 session test to the 10 day EMA.
Speaking of chips, some were on fire today and we hold two of them: AMD, NPTN. Impressive moves and look as if they want to continue their impressive moves.
Other areas were less than impressive.
The Big Names on NASDAQ were lower outside of FB, and is FB really a NASDAQ stock given its two-letter ticker? AMZN to the 20 day EMA and needing to get on it ahead of earnings. AAPL down to the 50 day SMA ahead of results. NFLX still at the May and June lows. GOOG not bad, working laterally along with the indices. TSLA (not sure if it qualifies as a big name, but it has good volume) posted a nice 'about time' break off the 200 day SMA to a higher recovery high.
Retail saw buyers move in. All of the stocks in that 2 week lateral handle/flag coming off the lows surged: JWN, DDS, KSS, M. Nice moves on better volume. Our play was JWN and we scooped it up.
Industrials of all kinds were slow. CAT, CMI held steady while Deere dropped as if shot. HON is still stuck below the 50 day EMA after the Friday gap lower. UTX is decent enough. EMR is in a really nice handle/flag over the 10 day EMA.
Software still looking like a leader, chips as well.
Oil was definitely mixed with CWEI scoring a nice 6+% move. CVX on the other hand plopped to the 50 day MA's. HAL broke below the 50 day MA's. Oil is still falling and oil stocks are sympathetic. A big tell will be how APC plays off the 50 day MA's on tomorrow morning's earnings.
Financials are not bad, e.g. JPM, GS, MS. They could continue to provide some more leadership.
So, still enough leadership out there to keep things moving higher with some great moves as well. Mostly they are taking a breather as well.
We did pick up some JWN and tried some P as it blasted higher late session. We will look at this early Tuesday.
In any event, not much movement but still holding the gains, waiting for the next round of earnings and central bank decisions as the next potential catalysts. Going to be a week heavy in news and we will let our positions work if they will.
Have a great evening!
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
______________________________________
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
No comments:
Post a Comment