Futures vs FV: SP +1.57; DJ +33.18; NASDAQ +7.59
First time in five sessions futures are higher but they are off the morning highs.
Lots of data on the FOMC decision day and Yellen presser at 2:30ET.
Empire Manufacturing, June: 6.1 vs -1.6 exp vs -9.0 prior
Employment at 0.0, lowest since March.
Nice to see a bounce in manufacturing.
PPI, MAY: 0.4% vs 0.3% vs 0.2%
Core: 0.3% vs 0.1% exp vs 0.1%. Highest since 1/15. +1.2% year/year
Energy +2.8%. Gasoline +6.6%, the largest 3-month increase since 8/09.
INdustrial Production, May: -0.4% vs -0.1% exp vs 0.7 prior3 of 5 months negative in 2016
Capacity: 74.9 vs 75.3 exp vs 75.3 prior (form 75.4). lowest since 10/2010 at 74.8
Brexit: Fears calming as the vote polls pull even. You would think the UK would disappear if it exits based upon the utter doom and gloom the 'experts' are projecting. Freedom from oppressive regulation is never doom and gloom. Capitalism, entrepreneurism finds a way.
Mortgages: -2.4% despite lowest rates in a year.
Orlando: Have not said much on this, but the press is horrible. There are multiple interviews of witnesses who said there were more shooters, but they have not been reported. They are giving the company line, i.e. the government story. Don't mean to sound conspiratorial (again), but there are just too many stories now emerging of recorded witness statements that are contrary to the headlines.
China: Just as the Fed meets China devalues the yuan to over 6.60 for the first time since 1/2011. Just letting the Fed know it is there . . . and wants low rates and a low dollar.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 1.627% VS 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.1229 VS 1.1209
USD/JPY: 105.128 vs 105.97
Oil: 47.85, -0.64. API inventories bearish for oil prices
Gold: 1285.80, -2.30
Futures are up, but not surging, just holding the same level all pre-market. Well, it looked as if the market was ready to bounce, it is going to try it on the open (though would have preferred a down open that reverses hard). Now we see how those leadership groups can hold.
FOMC at 2:00ET. No hike expected, but of course it is in the press conference where the direction will show up.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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