Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -6.31; DJ -34.48; NASDAQ -11.76

Futures are lower and that has folds worried. Four sessions lower. Actually, that is a good thing for an upside scenario as you get an undercut of near support and then a possible rebound. That is the way the market typically works now. Thus, a morning lower open is not a bad thing for the upside. It is of course not a lock the market does in fact rebound, but it lays the groundwork.

Indeed, futures are lower here but have held the same range since the open and are attempting to set up a bounce at the bell.

Europe is lower again on the fear of a Brexit. Four polls in the last 24 hours give exit the nod and the Sun came out and said 'Beleave,' i.e. leave.

US data was not great not bad.

Retail Sales, May: 0.5% versus 0.3% versus 1.3% April
Ex Auto: 0.4% vs 0.4% vs 0.8%
Control Group: 0.4%

Year/year: +2.5%, declining. Building materials/Garden center stores -1.8%

Gasoline store purchases: +2.1%, the largest component. Again, the gas store sales are driving retail sales as retail sales slowed mo/mo and were lower again on a year/year basis. So, a lower rate of monthly growth is not the great action many claims. That said, it could be worse . .

Import Prices: +1.0% overall
Export prices: +1.1% vs 0.5% prior


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 1.58% vs 1.613% 10 year. Surging again on Brexit fears. Economic as well, perhaps?

EUR/USD: 1.1237 vs 1.1297

USD/JPY: 105.89 vs 106.20. Wow what a beating.

Oil: 48.39, -0.49. Still in the pullback.

Gold: 1291.90, +4.50. Still in the rally higher.


The Fed starts its meeting and you have to wonder how the Brexit situation will weigh. I would suggest Yellen will do nothing until she sees that outcome.

Futures are edging higher to the open. Today we watch how the market recovers from a weaker start and how those leadership stocks that performed well in the really weak Monday perform today. They were showing some leadership caliber strength in weakness. Now we see if they can lead a reversal off a lower open.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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