Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +2.27; DJ +14.27; NASDAQ +2.39

Oil's continued decline has the most headlines, but don't forget about bonds. They are in a selloff as yield continue spiking.

Oil is down though not as spectacularly as on Wednesday when the 8.2M bbl build pushed stores to all-time highs.

Ironically, the just released February import prices show a 4.6% jump, the highest in 5 years, with energy import costs driving those prices higher. The ebb and flow of the oil markets.


ECB: Holds rates steady. Shocking. Draghi says he will keep fighting for low rates regardless of what the economic data shows. Nothing new there.

Earnings beats: SHLD (Sears--the power of low expectations); ELF (cosmetics)

Misses: TLRD (Suits; TL, BL); SPLS (TL); CWH (TL; Marcus Lamonis' company as seen on 'The Profit'); SIG (jewelry, TL); RATE (TL, BL)


Retail: There are interesting articles out right now detailing how the retail bubble has burst. The URBN CEO is quoted saying that is the case, how in the 1990's and 2000's and even before, massive overbuilding of malls and retail outlets occurred, fueled, of course, by easy money. Now the consumer is having issues. Remember, the middle class is now below 50%, record numbers out of the work force, and on and on. With the rise of the online retailer, this double impact is crushing physical site retailers. After retail space prices surged they are now plummeting. Malls and strip centers are closing across the nation. A fascinating, and sad, story of how forcing interest rates unnaturally lower has long range deleterious impacts on everyone up and down the spectrum.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.58% vs 2.55% 10 year. Bonds continue selling, yields continue rising

EUR/USD: 1.0550 vs 1.05388

USD/JPY: 114.722. Dollar continues rising against yen

Oil: 50.03, -0.23. Coming off the lows where it was down near another dollar.

Gold: 1207.20, -2.20


Stock futures are off the lows and of course are showing some modest gains heading into the fourth session for the week. The indices are still in the backwash of the one-day, post-SOTU address rally, trying to find some support to bounce.

NASDAQ tried it Wednesday and there were some great moves (SIMO, VRSN), and others are on the cusp of great moves as they gave back a bit more on the day than we wanted. If they can move higher again and gather some compadres with them, the rebound may gel.





Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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